SF49ers
12-4
23
TBD
Lambeau Field
5°F
10 mph
20
GBPackers
8-7
TBD
Lambeau Field
5°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
6
7
0
10
23
Packers
0
10
0
10
20
Spread
3
P
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
381
281
Total Plays
63
61
Yards / Play
6.0
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.05
Passing Yards
214
157
Comp/Att
16/30(53%)
17/26(65%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.14
+0.18
Rushing Yards
167
124
Rush Attempts
30
31
Yards / Rush
5.6
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
18
Passing 1st downs
12
8
Rushing 1st downs
9
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
50%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.97
--
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-13
-20
Sack EPA
-4.17
-4.97
Penalties
2
3
Penalty Yards
10
20
Penalty EPA
-1.51
-2.30
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model53.3%
Spread Pick
Packers+3.0
Expected Value
+8.4%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+14
Home nfelo
1,567
Away nfelo
1,647
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+41.7
Home QB Adjustment
+41.5
Away QB Adjustment
-0.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-23.0
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.2
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+41.5
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
24
Yards / Game
24
24
Passing Yards / Game
26
29
Rushing Yards / Game
3
25
EPA
EPA / Play
11
28
EPA / Pass
7
26
EPA / Rush
17
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
8
Interceptions / Game
4
26
Fumbles / Game
26
9
Turnover EPA / Game
31
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
17
4th Down Efficiency
5
25
RZ Efficiency
16
18
Packers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
3
Yards / Game
4
5
Passing Yards / Game
5
15
Rushing Yards / Game
7
4
EPA
EPA / Play
8
4
EPA / Pass
10
7
EPA / Rush
4
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
22
Interceptions / Game
16
13
Fumbles / Game
8
26
Turnover EPA / Game
13
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
10
4th Down Efficiency
2
13
RZ Efficiency
25
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Packers
4-5-1
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U