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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ packers week 18, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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SF logo
SF49ers
12-4
23
TBD
Lambeau Field
5°F
10 mph
20
GBPackers
8-7
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
5°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
6
7
0
10
23
Packers
0
10
0
10
20

Spread

SF logo
GB logo
3
P

Total

UNDER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
381
281
Total Plays
63
61
Yards / Play
6.0
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.05
Passing Yards
214
157
Comp/Att
16/30(53%)
17/26(65%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.14
+0.18
Rushing Yards
167
124
Rush Attempts
30
31
Yards / Rush
5.6
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
22
18
Passing 1st downs
12
8
Rushing 1st downs
9
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
50%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.97
--
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-13
-20
Sack EPA
-4.17
-4.97
Penalties
2
3
Penalty Yards
10
20
Penalty EPA
-1.51
-2.30

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model54.0%
Spread Pick
GB logo
Packers+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.4%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+8
Home nfelo
1,563
Away nfelo
1,648
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+41.7
Home QB Adjustment
+41.5
Away QB Adjustment
-0.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-28.0
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

C. Kaepernick headshot

C. Kaepernick

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.2
Value
Ptile
10/20
3.9
77
10/27
6.9
90
11/10
-11.4
2
11/17
-2.9
33
11/25
3.0
71
12/01
1.1
58
12/08
-2.1
38
12/15
3.9
78
12/23
2.0
63
12/29
5.9
86
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+41.5
Value
Ptile
01/12
4.9
81
09/08
3.6
74
09/15
12.2
98
09/22
-3.4
28
10/06
2.9
70
10/13
-0.4
47
10/20
6.9
90
10/27
6.6
88
11/04
-6.0
14
12/29
0.2
51

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Packers Defense
49ers logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
13
24
Yards / Game
24
24
Passing Yards / Game
26
29
Rushing Yards / Game
3
25

EPA

EPA / Play
11
28
EPA / Pass
7
26
EPA / Rush
17
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
8
Interceptions / Game
4
26
Fumbles / Game
26
9
Turnover EPA / Game
31
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
17
4th Down Efficiency
5
25
RZ Efficiency
16
18
Packers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Packers logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
9
3
Yards / Game
4
5
Passing Yards / Game
5
15
Rushing Yards / Game
7
4

EPA

EPA / Play
8
4
EPA / Pass
10
7
EPA / Rush
4
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
22
Interceptions / Game
16
13
Fumbles / Game
8
26
Turnover EPA / Game
13
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
10
4th Down Efficiency
2
13
RZ Efficiency
25
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/20
14
W
W
O
10/27
32
W
W
O
11/10
-1
L
L
U
11/17
-3
L
W
U
11/25
21
W
W
U
12/01
10
W
W
U
12/08
2
W
L
U
12/15
19
W
W
O
12/23
10
W
L
O
12/29
3
W
W
O
GB logo

Packers

4-5-1
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/27
13
W
W
O
11/04
-7
L
L
U
11/10
-14
L
L
U
11/17
-14
L
L
U
11/24
0
T
L
O
11/28
-30
L
L
O
12/08
1
W
L
U
12/15
1
W
W
O
12/22
-7
L
L
O
12/29
5
W
W
O