SF49ers
1-0
27
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
82°F
4 mph
46
CARPanthers
0-1
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
82°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
3
7
0
17
27
Panthers
1
10
14
15
40
Spread
-12.5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
302
529
Total Plays
64
78
Yards / Play
4.7
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.26
+0.01
Passing Yards
237
353
Comp/Att
17/36(47%)
24/40(60%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
8.8
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.27
Rushing Yards
65
176
Rush Attempts
26
37
Yards / Rush
2.5
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.46
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
26
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
29%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
4
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
3
Turnover EPA
-12.39
-22.19
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-6
--
Sack EPA
-1.30
-5.91
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
50
--
Penalty EPA
-7.42
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.5
Win Probability
Market84.1%
Model84.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+258
Home nfelo
1,591
Away nfelo
1,442
Home Field
+88.9
Base HFA
+57.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+31.1
Net QB Adjustment
+20.2
Home QB Adjustment
+9.0
Away QB Adjustment
-11.2
Market Regression
+70.5
Final Difference
289.4
Model Spread
-12.5
Quarterbacks
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-11.2
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.0
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
26
Yards / Game
31
21
Passing Yards / Game
29
32
Rushing Yards / Game
4
7
EPA
EPA / Play
29
11
EPA / Pass
30
17
EPA / Rush
10
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
14
Interceptions / Game
11
4
Fumbles / Game
29
8
Turnover EPA / Game
9
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
11
4th Down Efficiency
13
27
RZ Efficiency
4
2
Panthers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
32
Yards / Game
19
32
Passing Yards / Game
18
27
Rushing Yards / Game
10
32
EPA
EPA / Play
22
29
EPA / Pass
25
29
EPA / Rush
14
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
3
Interceptions / Game
28
22
Fumbles / Game
16
5
Turnover EPA / Game
5
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
29
4th Down Efficiency
7
22
RZ Efficiency
11
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Panthers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U