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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ raiders week 17, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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SF logo
SF49ers
11-4
37
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0
34
OAKRaiders
6-9
OAK logo
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
49ers
7
7
7
13
3
37
Raiders
10
7
7
10
0
34

Spread

OAK logo
+10

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
454
500
Total Plays
62
66
Yards / Play
7.3
7.6
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.09
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
23/34(68%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.22
+0.18
Rushing Yards
170
135
Rush Attempts
27
32
Yards / Rush
6.3
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.27
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
27
29
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
10
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
50%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
8
10
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.85
-13.60
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
71
49
Penalty EPA
-9.38
-12.70

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market80.1%
Model74.3%
Spread Pick
OAK logo
Raiders+10.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+15.2%
Cover Probability
57.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-139
Home nfelo
1,493
Away nfelo
1,680
Home Field
+41.7
Base HFA
+41.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.4
Home QB Adjustment
-84.6
Away QB Adjustment
-90.9
Market Regression
-64.8
Final Difference
-184.7
Model Spread
+7.5

Quarterbacks

B. Purdy headshot

B. Purdy

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
-90.9
Value
Ptile
12/11
5.8
88
12/15
1.5
64
12/24
-1.1
45
J. Stidham headshot

J. Stidham

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-84.6
No recent game data available

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Raiders Defense
49ers logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
6
26
Yards / Game
6
27
Passing Yards / Game
27
5
Rushing Yards / Game
7
19

EPA

EPA / Play
6
25
EPA / Pass
2
30
EPA / Rush
23
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
25
Interceptions / Game
3
31
Fumbles / Game
26
25
Turnover EPA / Game
31
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
25
4th Down Efficiency
29
20
RZ Efficiency
19
31
Raiders Offense vs 49ers Defense
Raiders logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
13
1
Yards / Game
12
2
Passing Yards / Game
15
19
Rushing Yards / Game
17
2

EPA

EPA / Play
13
1
EPA / Pass
14
2
EPA / Rush
13
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
27
Interceptions / Game
28
2
Fumbles / Game
1
19
Turnover EPA / Game
8
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
13
4th Down Efficiency
9
16
RZ Efficiency
26
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/16
-14
L
L
U
10/23
-21
L
L
O
10/30
17
W
W
O
11/13
6
W
L
U
11/21
28
W
W
O
11/27
13
W
W
U
12/04
16
W
W
O
12/11
28
W
W
O
12/15
8
W
W
U
12/24
17
W
W
O
OAK logo

Raiders

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/23
18
W
W
O
10/30
-24
L
L
U
11/06
-7
L
L
U
11/13
-5
L
L
O
11/20
6
W
W
U
11/27
6
W
W
O
12/04
7
W
W
U
12/08
-1
L
L
U
12/18
6
W
W
O
12/24
-3
L
L
U