SF49ers
1-0
30
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
023
LARRams
1-0
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
10
3
10
30
Rams
3
14
0
6
23
Spread
7
P
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
365
386
Total Plays
54
78
Yards / Play
6.8
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.16
-0.03
Passing Yards
206
297
Comp/Att
17/25(68%)
34/55(62%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.13
-0.09
Rushing Yards
159
89
Rush Attempts
28
22
Yards / Rush
5.7
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.15
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
28
Passing 1st downs
11
17
Rushing 1st downs
8
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
22%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
60%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-9.44
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
--
-10
Sack EPA
-1.82
-2.34
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
57
55
Penalty EPA
-5.19
-6.25
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model72.1%
Spread Pick
Rams+7.0
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-128
Home nfelo
1,479
Away nfelo
1,650
Home Field
+23.6
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
-19.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+19.7
Home QB Adjustment
+15.6
Away QB Adjustment
-4.1
Market Regression
-19.6
Final Difference
-165.1
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.1
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+15.6
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
18
Yards / Game
1
18
Passing Yards / Game
1
29
Rushing Yards / Game
4
13
EPA
EPA / Play
1
21
EPA / Pass
1
19
EPA / Rush
5
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
26
Interceptions / Game
12
24
Fumbles / Game
9
30
Turnover EPA / Game
24
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
16
4th Down Efficiency
13
24
RZ Efficiency
1
20
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
4
Yards / Game
7
9
Passing Yards / Game
12
17
Rushing Yards / Game
12
5
EPA
EPA / Play
11
18
EPA / Pass
7
8
EPA / Rush
8
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
27
Interceptions / Game
18
2
Fumbles / Game
3
28
Turnover EPA / Game
23
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
27
4th Down Efficiency
5
14
RZ Efficiency
8
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Rams
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U