SF49ers
1-1
24
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
027
LARRams
0-2
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
14
0
7
3
24
Rams
0
7
7
13
27
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
425
296
Total Plays
65
55
Yards / Play
6.5
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.21
Passing Yards
288
198
Comp/Att
22/30(73%)
16/26(62%)
Yards / Pass
9.6
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.48
+0.11
Rushing Yards
137
98
Rush Attempts
34
26
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
19
Passing 1st downs
13
8
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
55%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
67%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.09
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-4
-23
Sack EPA
-3.09
-3.20
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
111
75
Penalty EPA
-9.42
-9.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model66.9%
Spread Pick
Rams+6.0
Expected Value
+0.2%
Cover Probability
50.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-85
Home nfelo
1,525
Away nfelo
1,646
Home Field
+42.0
Base HFA
+46.8
Divisional Adj
-21.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.2
Home QB Adjustment
-3.9
Away QB Adjustment
+1.2
Market Regression
+9.8
Final Difference
-122.3
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.2
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.7
Team Elo Adj
-3.9
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
15
Yards / Game
4
25
Passing Yards / Game
2
15
Rushing Yards / Game
11
28
EPA
EPA / Play
11
20
EPA / Pass
9
13
EPA / Rush
13
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
23
Interceptions / Game
26
15
Fumbles / Game
22
25
Turnover EPA / Game
7
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
18
4th Down Efficiency
23
6
RZ Efficiency
14
4
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
29
Yards / Game
14
7
Passing Yards / Game
31
2
Rushing Yards / Game
23
18
EPA
EPA / Play
14
30
EPA / Pass
12
14
EPA / Rush
27
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
21
Interceptions / Game
7
18
Fumbles / Game
11
19
Turnover EPA / Game
28
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
25
4th Down Efficiency
7
26
RZ Efficiency
25
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Rams
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U