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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ rams week 6, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SF logo
SF49ers
4-0
20
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
77°F
2 mph
7
LARRams
3-2
LAR logo
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
77°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
0
10
3
20
Rams
7
0
0
0
7

Spread

SF logo
+3

Total

UNDER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
331
157
Total Plays
76
50
Yards / Play
4.4
3.1
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.60
Passing Yards
232
48
Comp/Att
24/33(73%)
13/24(54%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
2.0
EPA / Pass
-0.00
-0.76
Rushing Yards
99
109
Rush Attempts
41
22
Yards / Rush
2.4
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.50
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
22
10
Passing 1st downs
14
1
Rushing 1st downs
8
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
47%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
8
--
3rd Down Attempts
17
9
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-12.89
-6.00
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-11
-30
Sack EPA
-7.53
-5.85
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
--
59
Penalty EPA
--
-4.56

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+104
Home nfelo
1,601
Away nfelo
1,530
Home Field
+29.9
Base HFA
+54.5
Divisional Adj
-24.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+3.2
Home QB Adjustment
+6.1
Away QB Adjustment
+2.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Garoppolo headshot

J. Garoppolo

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.9
Value
Ptile
12/17
5.3
85
12/24
5.9
88
12/31
1.4
63
09/09
-8.3
7
09/16
-3.1
27
09/23
0.6
50
09/08
-4.0
25
09/15
4.4
81
09/22
-1.9
39
10/07
-0.5
48
J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+6.1
Value
Ptile
12/23
3.3
71
12/30
3.9
74
01/12
-2.7
30
01/20
0.9
52
02/03
-8.1
8
09/08
-4.2
25
09/15
1.4
64
09/22
-1.2
45
09/29
3.8
77
10/03
3.0
72

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
49ers logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
3
17
Yards / Game
8
14
Passing Yards / Game
15
19
Rushing Yards / Game
2
18

EPA

EPA / Play
4
10
EPA / Pass
5
12
EPA / Rush
8
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
32
Interceptions / Game
20
13
Fumbles / Game
26
12
Turnover EPA / Game
13
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
17
4th Down Efficiency
12
25
RZ Efficiency
19
30
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Rams logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
10
7
Yards / Game
6
2
Passing Yards / Game
26
2
Rushing Yards / Game
26
12

EPA

EPA / Play
15
3
EPA / Pass
12
2
EPA / Rush
28
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
22
Interceptions / Game
25
7
Fumbles / Game
10
5
Turnover EPA / Game
8
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
2
4th Down Efficiency
31
8
RZ Efficiency
6
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/25
-18
L
L
U
12/02
-27
L
L
O
12/09
6
W
W
U
12/16
3
W
W
O
12/23
-5
L
L
U
12/30
-16
L
L
O
09/08
14
W
W
U
09/15
24
W
W
O
09/22
4
W
L
U
10/07
28
W
W
U
LAR logo

Rams

7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/23
22
W
W
U
12/30
16
W
W
O
01/12
8
W
W
O
01/20
3
W
W
U
02/03
-10
L
L
U
09/08
3
W
W
O
09/15
18
W
W
U
09/22
7
W
W
U
09/29
-15
L
L
O
10/03
-1
L
W
O