SF49ers
4-0
20
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
77°F
2 mph
7
LARRams
3-2
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
77°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
0
10
3
20
Rams
7
0
0
0
7
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
331
157
Total Plays
76
50
Yards / Play
4.4
3.1
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.60
Passing Yards
232
48
Comp/Att
24/33(73%)
13/24(54%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
2.0
EPA / Pass
-0.00
-0.76
Rushing Yards
99
109
Rush Attempts
41
22
Yards / Rush
2.4
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.50
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
10
Passing 1st downs
14
1
Rushing 1st downs
8
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
47%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
8
--
3rd Down Attempts
17
9
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-12.89
-6.00
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-11
-30
Sack EPA
-7.53
-5.85
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
--
59
Penalty EPA
--
-4.56
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+104
Home nfelo
1,599
Away nfelo
1,528
Home Field
+29.6
Base HFA
+53.9
Divisional Adj
-24.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+3.2
Home QB Adjustment
+6.1
Away QB Adjustment
+2.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.9
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+6.1
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
17
Yards / Game
8
14
Passing Yards / Game
15
19
Rushing Yards / Game
2
18
EPA
EPA / Play
4
10
EPA / Pass
5
12
EPA / Rush
8
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
32
Interceptions / Game
20
13
Fumbles / Game
26
12
Turnover EPA / Game
13
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
17
4th Down Efficiency
12
25
RZ Efficiency
19
30
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
7
Yards / Game
6
2
Passing Yards / Game
26
2
Rushing Yards / Game
26
12
EPA
EPA / Play
15
3
EPA / Pass
12
2
EPA / Rush
28
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
22
Interceptions / Game
25
7
Fumbles / Game
10
5
Turnover EPA / Game
8
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
2
4th Down Efficiency
31
8
RZ Efficiency
6
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Rams
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U