SF49ers
2-5
6
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
027
LARRams
3-3
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
3
3
0
0
6
Rams
0
18
0
7
25
Spread
-8
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
189
390
Total Plays
65
65
Yards / Play
2.9
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.38
-0.08
Passing Yards
151
--
Comp/Att
20/41(49%)
14/24(58%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
--
EPA / Pass
-0.41
-0.19
Rushing Yards
38
197
Rush Attempts
21
41
Yards / Rush
1.8
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.33
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
16
Passing 1st downs
8
5
Rushing 1st downs
1
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
18%
8%
3rd Down Conversions
3
1
3rd Down Attempts
17
12
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.91
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-11
--
Sack EPA
-3.65
--
Penalties
12
12
Penalty Yards
88
93
Penalty EPA
-11.29
-13.42
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market75.7%
Model75.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+190
Home nfelo
1,513
Away nfelo
1,405
Home Field
+78.0
Base HFA
+62.1
Divisional Adj
-28.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.7
Time Adj
+22.3
Net QB Adjustment
+3.6
Home QB Adjustment
-10.3
Away QB Adjustment
-14.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
197.4
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-14.0
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-10.3
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
12
Yards / Game
31
23
Passing Yards / Game
23
18
Rushing Yards / Game
21
21
EPA
EPA / Play
30
6
EPA / Pass
29
10
EPA / Rush
9
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
32
Interceptions / Game
11
17
Fumbles / Game
1
5
Turnover EPA / Game
28
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
6
4th Down Efficiency
21
3
RZ Efficiency
31
2
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
17
Yards / Game
32
29
Passing Yards / Game
32
1
Rushing Yards / Game
7
29
EPA
EPA / Play
32
27
EPA / Pass
32
29
EPA / Rush
24
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
2
Interceptions / Game
10
26
Fumbles / Game
15
30
Turnover EPA / Game
21
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
18
4th Down Efficiency
31
20
RZ Efficiency
21
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Rams
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U