SF49ers
8-2
13
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
016
LARRams
4-6
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
49ers
7
0
0
6
0
13
Rams
0
0
0
5
3
8
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
339
295
Total Plays
71
69
Yards / Play
4.8
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.20
Passing Yards
191
210
Comp/Att
21/32(66%)
26/40(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.10
Rushing Yards
148
85
Rush Attempts
36
27
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.36
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
16
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
42%
19%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
19
16
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.94
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-17
-13
Sack EPA
-2.65
-2.74
Penalties
11
8
Penalty Yards
97
65
Penalty EPA
-9.95
-7.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.9%
Model74.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-177
Home nfelo
1,412
Away nfelo
1,692
Home Field
+78.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+25.4
Home QB Adjustment
+14.0
Away QB Adjustment
-11.4
Market Regression
+23.6
Final Difference
-189.9
Model Spread
+7.5
Quarterbacks
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-11.4
Value
Ptile
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+14.0
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
14
Yards / Game
5
13
Passing Yards / Game
21
18
Rushing Yards / Game
2
15
EPA
EPA / Play
5
13
EPA / Pass
7
9
EPA / Rush
1
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
20
Interceptions / Game
2
11
Fumbles / Game
15
32
Turnover EPA / Game
29
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
13
4th Down Efficiency
8
6
RZ Efficiency
16
9
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
3
Yards / Game
22
4
Passing Yards / Game
16
14
Rushing Yards / Game
20
3
EPA
EPA / Play
25
8
EPA / Pass
18
10
EPA / Rush
22
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
12
Interceptions / Game
12
19
Fumbles / Game
9
14
Turnover EPA / Game
16
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
6
4th Down Efficiency
15
19
RZ Efficiency
19
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
7-2-1
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Rams
4-5-1
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U