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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ rams week 17, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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SF logo
SF49ers
5-10
34
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
67°F
3 mph
13
LARRams
11-4
LAR logo
TBD
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
67°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
10
10
7
7
34
Rams
3
3
0
7
13

Spread

SF logo
-6.5

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
461
251
Total Plays
63
63
Yards / Play
7.3
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.25
-0.18
Passing Yards
--
149
Comp/Att
20/33(61%)
20/34(59%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.4
EPA / Pass
+0.26
-0.43
Rushing Yards
169
102
Rush Attempts
30
26
Yards / Rush
5.6
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
25
15
Passing 1st downs
13
7
Rushing 1st downs
10
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
50%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
80%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-11.59
-6.41
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-20
Sack EPA
--
-6.08
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
--
46
Penalty EPA
--
-5.83

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
+6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model64.0%
Spread Pick
LAR logo
Rams+6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+10.0%
Cover Probability
57.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+128
Home nfelo
1,597
Away nfelo
1,415
Home Field
+31.1
Base HFA
+56.8
Divisional Adj
-25.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-84.4
Home QB Adjustment
-52.7
Away QB Adjustment
+31.8
Market Regression
-255.3
Final Difference
-99.8
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

J. Garoppolo headshot

J. Garoppolo

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+31.8
Value
Ptile
09/11
2.6
69
09/18
5.6
85
12/03
-0.4
49
12/10
-1.1
44
12/17
5.3
85
12/24
5.9
88
S. Mannion headshot

S. Mannion

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-52.7
No recent game data available

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
49ers logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
19
12
Yards / Game
12
17
Passing Yards / Game
11
11
Rushing Yards / Game
20
27

EPA

EPA / Play
16
7
EPA / Pass
17
5
EPA / Rush
9
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
24
Interceptions / Game
23
7
Fumbles / Game
13
3
Turnover EPA / Game
10
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
14
4th Down Efficiency
19
27
RZ Efficiency
28
24
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Rams logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
3
25
Yards / Game
8
25
Passing Yards / Game
13
4
Rushing Yards / Game
7
22

EPA

EPA / Play
6
25
EPA / Pass
8
26
EPA / Rush
7
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
10
Interceptions / Game
1
25
Fumbles / Game
30
9
Turnover EPA / Game
21
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
30
4th Down Efficiency
22
32
RZ Efficiency
15
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/15
-2
L
W
O
10/22
-30
L
L
O
10/29
-23
L
L
U
11/05
-10
L
L
U
11/12
10
W
W
O
11/26
-11
L
L
U
12/03
1
W
W
U
12/10
10
W
W
U
12/17
2
W
L
O
12/24
11
W
W
O
LAR logo

Rams

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/15
10
W
W
O
10/22
33
W
W
U
11/05
34
W
W
O
11/12
26
W
W
U
11/19
-17
L
L
U
11/26
6
W
W
U
12/03
16
W
W
O
12/10
-8
L
L
O
12/17
35
W
W
O
12/24
4
W
L
O