SF49ers
10-1
17
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
40°F
13 mph
20
BALRavens
9-2
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
40°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
7
3
0
17
Ravens
7
10
0
3
20
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
331
283
Total Plays
52
62
Yards / Play
6.4
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.06
Passing Yards
157
105
Comp/Att
15/21(71%)
14/23(61%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
4.6
EPA / Pass
+0.10
-0.08
Rushing Yards
174
178
Rush Attempts
29
38
Yards / Rush
6.0
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.10
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
21
Passing 1st downs
7
5
Rushing 1st downs
7
14
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.83
-3.97
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-8
--
Sack EPA
-6.45
-0.39
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
54
23
Penalty EPA
-6.18
-3.42
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model70.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+197
Home nfelo
1,677
Away nfelo
1,600
Home Field
+74.6
Base HFA
+48.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+26.1
Net QB Adjustment
+45.0
Home QB Adjustment
+53.2
Away QB Adjustment
+8.2
Market Regression
-3.4
Final Difference
152.8
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+8.2
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+53.2
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
3
Yards / Game
8
3
Passing Yards / Game
15
14
Rushing Yards / Game
2
7
EPA
EPA / Play
4
7
EPA / Pass
5
3
EPA / Rush
8
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
26
Interceptions / Game
20
16
Fumbles / Game
26
6
Turnover EPA / Game
13
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
14
4th Down Efficiency
12
3
RZ Efficiency
19
7
Ravens Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
7
Yards / Game
2
2
Passing Yards / Game
23
2
Rushing Yards / Game
1
12
EPA
EPA / Play
1
3
EPA / Pass
1
2
EPA / Rush
1
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
22
Interceptions / Game
10
7
Fumbles / Game
9
5
Turnover EPA / Game
30
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
2
4th Down Efficiency
5
8
RZ Efficiency
5
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
9-1
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Ravens
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U