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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ saints week 10, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SF logo
SF49ers
4-5
13
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
27
NOSaints
6-2
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
3
0
3
13
Saints
0
17
0
10
27

Spread

NO logo
-9.5

Total

UNDER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
281
237
Total Plays
66
56
Yards / Play
4.3
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.09
Passing Yards
232
123
Comp/Att
24/39(62%)
14/23(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.02
-0.13
Rushing Yards
49
114
Rush Attempts
25
30
Yards / Rush
2.0
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.48
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
14
8
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
44%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
3
Turnover EPA
-3.78
+6.32
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-15
-16
Sack EPA
-3.10
-4.74
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
51
61
Penalty EPA
-6.90
-7.66

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market78.5%
Model74.9%
Spread Pick
SF logo
49ers+9.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+9.0%
Cover Probability
57.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+113
Home nfelo
1,605
Away nfelo
1,553
Home Field
+7.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+54.0
Home QB Adjustment
+18.8
Away QB Adjustment
-35.3
Market Regression
+6.2
Final Difference
189.8
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

N. Mullens headshot

N. Mullens

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-35.3
Value
Ptile
11/12
-1.0
39
11/25
-9.5
4
12/02
2.8
69
12/09
-0.8
41
12/16
-0.1
45
12/23
-1.4
36
12/30
-1.7
35
09/27
2.4
62
10/04
-5.6
13
11/05
0.1
47
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+18.8
Value
Ptile
12/29
4.1
79
01/05
0.0
52
09/13
-0.8
40
09/21
1.8
57
09/27
7.9
91
10/04
-1.2
36
10/12
3.1
68
10/25
8.1
92
11/01
6.9
88
11/08
7.9
91

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Saints Defense
49ers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
21
3
Yards / Game
14
2
Passing Yards / Game
13
18
Rushing Yards / Game
15
3

EPA

EPA / Play
21
3
EPA / Pass
16
5
EPA / Rush
22
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
25
Interceptions / Game
30
5
Fumbles / Game
27
26
Turnover EPA / Game
2
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
5
4th Down Efficiency
28
15
RZ Efficiency
7
23
Saints Offense vs 49ers Defense
Saints logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
5
17
Yards / Game
12
4
Passing Yards / Game
21
12
Rushing Yards / Game
7
8

EPA

EPA / Play
12
11
EPA / Pass
13
8
EPA / Rush
6
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
12
Interceptions / Game
6
16
Fumbles / Game
26
6
Turnover EPA / Game
18
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
3
4th Down Efficiency
6
25
RZ Efficiency
5
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
02/02
-11
L
L
U
09/13
-4
L
L
U
09/20
18
W
W
O
09/27
27
W
W
O
10/04
-5
L
L
U
10/11
-26
L
L
O
10/18
8
W
W
U
10/25
27
W
W
U
11/01
-10
L
L
O
11/05
-17
L
L
O
NO logo

Saints

7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
32
W
W
O
01/05
-6
L
L
U
09/13
11
W
W
O
09/21
-10
L
L
O
09/27
-7
L
L
O
10/04
6
W
W
O
10/12
3
W
L
O
10/25
3
W
L
O
11/01
3
W
L
O
11/08
35
W
W
U