SF49ers
4-5
13
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
027
NOSaints
6-2
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
3
0
3
13
Saints
0
17
0
10
27
Spread
-9.5
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
281
237
Total Plays
66
56
Yards / Play
4.3
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.09
Passing Yards
232
123
Comp/Att
24/39(62%)
14/23(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.02
-0.13
Rushing Yards
49
114
Rush Attempts
25
30
Yards / Rush
2.0
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.48
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
14
8
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
44%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
3
Turnover EPA
-3.78
+6.32
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-15
-16
Sack EPA
-3.10
-4.74
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
51
61
Penalty EPA
-6.90
-7.66
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model74.9%
Spread Pick
49ers+9.5
Expected Value
+9.0%
Cover Probability
57.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+113
Home nfelo
1,605
Away nfelo
1,553
Home Field
+7.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+54.0
Home QB Adjustment
+18.8
Away QB Adjustment
-35.3
Market Regression
+6.2
Final Difference
189.8
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
N. Mullens
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-35.3
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+18.8
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
3
Yards / Game
14
2
Passing Yards / Game
13
18
Rushing Yards / Game
15
3
EPA
EPA / Play
21
3
EPA / Pass
16
5
EPA / Rush
22
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
25
Interceptions / Game
30
5
Fumbles / Game
27
26
Turnover EPA / Game
2
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
5
4th Down Efficiency
28
15
RZ Efficiency
7
23
Saints Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
17
Yards / Game
12
4
Passing Yards / Game
21
12
Rushing Yards / Game
7
8
EPA
EPA / Play
12
11
EPA / Pass
13
8
EPA / Rush
6
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
12
Interceptions / Game
6
16
Fumbles / Game
26
6
Turnover EPA / Game
18
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
3
4th Down Efficiency
6
25
RZ Efficiency
5
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Saints
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U