SF49ers
7-2
31
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
021
NOSaints
5-5
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
1
8
3
19
Saints
7
7
7
0
21
Spread
-2
Total
OVER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
375
290
Total Plays
56
67
Yards / Play
6.7
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.23
Passing Yards
--
231
Comp/Att
16/25(64%)
26/41(63%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.43
-0.53
Rushing Yards
144
59
Rush Attempts
31
21
Yards / Rush
4.6
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
19
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
46%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.29
-10.09
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-36
Sack EPA
--
-8.03
Penalties
10
4
Penalty Yards
68
53
Penalty EPA
-10.15
-1.99
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.0
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model48.0%
Spread Pick
Saints+2.0
Expected Value
+0.9%
Cover Probability
51.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+52
Home nfelo
1,615
Away nfelo
1,651
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+14.5
Home QB Adjustment
-1.9
Away QB Adjustment
-16.4
Market Regression
-5.6
Final Difference
14.2
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-16.4
Value
Ptile
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
-1.9
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
31
Yards / Game
5
32
Passing Yards / Game
21
28
Rushing Yards / Game
2
32
EPA
EPA / Play
5
30
EPA / Pass
7
29
EPA / Rush
1
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
26
Interceptions / Game
2
15
Fumbles / Game
15
16
Turnover EPA / Game
29
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
16
4th Down Efficiency
8
20
RZ Efficiency
16
22
Saints Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
3
Yards / Game
2
4
Passing Yards / Game
3
14
Rushing Yards / Game
25
3
EPA
EPA / Play
8
8
EPA / Pass
8
10
EPA / Rush
12
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
12
Interceptions / Game
28
19
Fumbles / Game
3
14
Turnover EPA / Game
14
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
6
4th Down Efficiency
12
19
RZ Efficiency
3
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
7-2-1
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Saints
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U