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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ seahawks week 2, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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SF logo
SF49ers
0-1
9
TBD
Lumen Field
65°F
12 mph
12
SEASeahawks
0-1
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
65°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
6
0
3
9
Seahawks
6
0
0
6
12

Spread

SF logo
+13.5

Total

UNDER
42

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
248
312
Total Plays
48
79
Yards / Play
5.2
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.17
-0.08
Passing Yards
89
181
Comp/Att
15/27(56%)
23/39(59%)
Yards / Pass
3.3
4.6
EPA / Pass
-0.59
-0.05
Rushing Yards
159
131
Rush Attempts
19
37
Yards / Rush
8.4
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.24
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
11
21
Passing 1st downs
4
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
17%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
19
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.42
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-10
-17
Sack EPA
-2.69
-3.71
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
66
71
Penalty EPA
-7.77
-9.05

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-12.0
Current
-13.5
Model
-13.5

Win Probability

Market86.2%
Model86.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+284
Home nfelo
1,583
Away nfelo
1,354
Home Field
+52.3
Base HFA
+58.2
Divisional Adj
-26.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.7
Home QB Adjustment
-8.3
Away QB Adjustment
-11.0
Market Regression
+37.8
Final Difference
318.3
Model Spread
-13.5

Quarterbacks

B. Hoyer headshot

B. Hoyer

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-11.0
Value
Ptile
12/06
3.2
75
12/13
-8.2
3
01/03
-3.0
28
01/09
-14.7
0
09/25
4.0
78
10/02
4.3
81
10/09
10.4
97
10/16
0.4
52
10/20
-6.1
11
09/10
-6.0
16
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-8.3
Value
Ptile
11/20
1.9
64
11/27
-9.3
3
12/04
1.5
60
12/11
-11.2
1
12/15
1.2
58
12/24
4.7
82
01/01
0.9
56
01/07
-0.2
47
01/14
-1.9
35
09/10
-4.1
24

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
49ers logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
19
9
Yards / Game
12
11
Passing Yards / Game
11
9
Rushing Yards / Game
20
20

EPA

EPA / Play
16
8
EPA / Pass
17
6
EPA / Rush
9
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
10
Interceptions / Game
23
14
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
10
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
16
4th Down Efficiency
19
15
RZ Efficiency
28
6
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Seahawks logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
12
25
Yards / Game
15
25
Passing Yards / Game
9
4
Rushing Yards / Game
23
22

EPA

EPA / Play
19
25
EPA / Pass
13
26
EPA / Rush
24
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
10
Interceptions / Game
13
25
Fumbles / Game
7
9
Turnover EPA / Game
25
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
30
4th Down Efficiency
7
32
RZ Efficiency
12
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

1-9
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/06
-18
L
L
O
11/13
-3
L
W
U
11/20
-13
L
L
U
11/27
-7
L
P
O
12/04
-20
L
L
U
12/11
-6
L
L
U
12/18
-28
L
L
O
12/24
1
W
W
O
01/01
-2
L
W
O
09/10
-20
L
L
U
SEA logo

Seahawks

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/20
11
W
W
U
11/27
-9
L
L
U
12/04
33
W
W
O
12/11
-28
L
L
O
12/15
21
W
W
U
12/24
-3
L
L
O
01/01
2
W
L
O
01/07
20
W
W
U
01/14
-16
L
L
O
09/10
-8
L
L
U