SF49ers
0-1
9
TBD
Lumen Field
65°F
12 mph
12
SEASeahawks
0-1
TBD
Lumen Field
65°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
6
0
3
9
Seahawks
6
0
0
6
12
Spread
+13.5
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
248
312
Total Plays
48
79
Yards / Play
5.2
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.17
-0.08
Passing Yards
89
181
Comp/Att
15/27(56%)
23/39(59%)
Yards / Pass
3.3
4.6
EPA / Pass
-0.59
-0.05
Rushing Yards
159
131
Rush Attempts
19
37
Yards / Rush
8.4
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.24
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
21
Passing 1st downs
4
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
17%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
19
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.42
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-10
-17
Sack EPA
-2.69
-3.71
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
66
71
Penalty EPA
-7.77
-9.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-12.0
Current
-13.5
Model
-13.5
Win Probability
Market86.2%
Model86.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+289
Home nfelo
1,587
Away nfelo
1,353
Home Field
+51.6
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.7
Home QB Adjustment
-8.3
Away QB Adjustment
-11.0
Market Regression
+37.8
Final Difference
318.3
Model Spread
-13.5
Quarterbacks
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-11.0
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-8.3
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
9
Yards / Game
12
11
Passing Yards / Game
11
9
Rushing Yards / Game
20
20
EPA
EPA / Play
16
8
EPA / Pass
17
6
EPA / Rush
9
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
10
Interceptions / Game
23
14
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
10
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
16
4th Down Efficiency
19
15
RZ Efficiency
28
6
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
25
Yards / Game
15
25
Passing Yards / Game
9
4
Rushing Yards / Game
23
22
EPA
EPA / Play
19
25
EPA / Pass
13
26
EPA / Rush
24
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
10
Interceptions / Game
13
25
Fumbles / Game
7
9
Turnover EPA / Game
25
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
30
4th Down Efficiency
7
32
RZ Efficiency
12
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
1-9
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Seahawks
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U