SF49ers
1-1
18
TBD
Lumen Field
66°F
6 mph
37
SEASeahawks
1-1
TBD
Lumen Field
66°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
3
0
15
18
Seahawks
14
10
6
7
37
Spread
-10.5
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
256
418
Total Plays
57
65
Yards / Play
4.5
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.27
+0.09
Passing Yards
--
291
Comp/Att
14/25(56%)
22/32(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
9.1
EPA / Pass
-0.42
+0.32
Rushing Yards
137
127
Rush Attempts
32
31
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
18
Passing 1st downs
6
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
27%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.27
-8.95
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-17
Sack EPA
--
-1.97
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
35
50
Penalty EPA
-4.98
-3.41
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+237
Home nfelo
1,602
Away nfelo
1,427
Home Field
+51.5
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+10.5
Home QB Adjustment
+1.5
Away QB Adjustment
-9.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-9.0
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.5
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
2
Yards / Game
31
5
Passing Yards / Game
29
14
Rushing Yards / Game
4
6
EPA
EPA / Play
29
8
EPA / Pass
30
16
EPA / Rush
10
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
6
Interceptions / Game
11
25
Fumbles / Game
29
23
Turnover EPA / Game
9
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
12
4th Down Efficiency
13
5
RZ Efficiency
4
20
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
32
Yards / Game
15
32
Passing Yards / Game
4
27
Rushing Yards / Game
21
32
EPA
EPA / Play
14
29
EPA / Pass
10
29
EPA / Rush
21
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
3
Interceptions / Game
15
22
Fumbles / Game
6
5
Turnover EPA / Game
21
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
29
4th Down Efficiency
21
22
RZ Efficiency
26
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Seahawks
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U