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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ seahawks week 3, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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SF logo
SF49ers
1-1
18
TBD
Lumen Field
66°F
6 mph
37
SEASeahawks
1-1
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
66°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
3
0
15
18
Seahawks
14
10
6
7
37

Spread

SEA logo
-10.5

Total

OVER
42

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
256
418
Total Plays
57
65
Yards / Play
4.5
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.27
+0.09
Passing Yards
--
291
Comp/Att
14/25(56%)
22/32(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
9.1
EPA / Pass
-0.42
+0.32
Rushing Yards
137
127
Rush Attempts
32
31
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
12
18
Passing 1st downs
6
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
27%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.27
-8.95
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-17
Sack EPA
--
-1.97
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
35
50
Penalty EPA
-4.98
-3.41

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5

Win Probability

Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+238
Home nfelo
1,603
Away nfelo
1,427
Home Field
+52.2
Base HFA
+58.1
Divisional Adj
-26.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+10.5
Home QB Adjustment
+1.5
Away QB Adjustment
-9.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5

Quarterbacks

B. Gabbert headshot

B. Gabbert

Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-9.0
Value
Ptile
11/08
-0.9
45
11/22
2.7
70
11/29
2.5
68
12/06
2.7
70
12/13
-7.8
5
12/20
-5.6
13
12/27
0.4
53
01/03
1.5
62
09/12
2.2
66
09/18
-1.3
38
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+1.5
Value
Ptile
11/29
9.7
96
12/06
11.8
99
12/13
10.9
98
12/20
7.2
92
12/27
0.2
51
01/03
4.5
81
01/10
-5.1
14
01/17
2.7
71
09/11
-1.7
35
09/18
-1.0
41

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
49ers logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
26
2
Yards / Game
31
5
Passing Yards / Game
29
14
Rushing Yards / Game
4
6

EPA

EPA / Play
29
8
EPA / Pass
30
16
EPA / Rush
10
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
6
Interceptions / Game
11
25
Fumbles / Game
29
23
Turnover EPA / Game
9
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
12
4th Down Efficiency
13
5
RZ Efficiency
4
20
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Seahawks logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
17
32
Yards / Game
15
32
Passing Yards / Game
4
27
Rushing Yards / Game
21
32

EPA

EPA / Play
14
29
EPA / Pass
10
29
EPA / Rush
21
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
3
Interceptions / Game
15
22
Fumbles / Game
6
5
Turnover EPA / Game
21
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
29
4th Down Efficiency
21
22
RZ Efficiency
26
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/08
1
W
W
U
11/22
-16
L
L
O
11/29
-6
L
W
U
12/06
6
W
W
O
12/13
-14
L
L
U
12/20
-10
L
L
U
12/27
-15
L
L
O
01/03
3
W
W
U
09/12
28
W
W
U
09/18
-19
L
L
O
SEA logo

Seahawks

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/29
9
W
W
O
12/06
31
W
W
O
12/13
29
W
W
U
12/20
17
W
W
U
12/27
-6
L
L
U
01/03
30
W
W
U
01/10
1
W
L
U
01/17
-7
L
L
O
09/11
2
W
L
U
09/18
-6
L
L
U