SF49ers
2-9
16
TBD
Lumen Field
45°F
2 mph
43
SEASeahawks
6-5
TBD
Lumen Field
45°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
3
7
6
16
Seahawks
6
14
7
10
37
Spread
-9.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
452
331
Total Plays
75
49
Yards / Play
6.0
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.52
Passing Yards
386
163
Comp/Att
30/48(63%)
11/17(65%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
9.6
EPA / Pass
+0.12
+0.63
Rushing Yards
66
168
Rush Attempts
24
29
Yards / Rush
2.8
5.8
EPA / Rush
-0.52
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
18
7
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
5
3rd Down %
44%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
9
Red Zone %
25%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-16.27
+4.20
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-28
-22
Sack EPA
-7.82
-4.90
Penalties
12
10
Penalty Yards
123
100
Penalty EPA
-11.29
-10.41
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+247
Home nfelo
1,548
Away nfelo
1,462
Home Field
+51.4
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+109.3
Home QB Adjustment
+10.2
Away QB Adjustment
-99.1
Market Regression
-10.5
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
N. Mullens
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-99.1
Value
Ptile
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.2
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
13
Yards / Game
14
19
Passing Yards / Game
16
24
Rushing Yards / Game
12
18
EPA
EPA / Play
21
19
EPA / Pass
20
11
EPA / Rush
28
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
8
Interceptions / Game
30
19
Fumbles / Game
25
3
Turnover EPA / Game
1
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
5
4th Down Efficiency
19
5
RZ Efficiency
32
8
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
28
Yards / Game
18
13
Passing Yards / Game
19
20
Rushing Yards / Game
1
13
EPA
EPA / Play
6
26
EPA / Pass
8
28
EPA / Rush
5
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
9
Interceptions / Game
2
32
Fumbles / Game
2
26
Turnover EPA / Game
31
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
21
4th Down Efficiency
3
18
RZ Efficiency
6
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Seahawks
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U