SF49ers
6-5
23
TBD
Lumen Field
41°F
4 mph
30
SEASeahawks
3-8
TBD
Lumen Field
41°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
14
9
0
0
23
Seahawks
7
14
7
0
28
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
365
327
Total Plays
56
68
Yards / Play
6.5
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.07
Passing Yards
294
181
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
30/37(81%)
Yards / Pass
9.8
4.9
EPA / Pass
+0.06
-0.17
Rushing Yards
71
146
Rush Attempts
25
27
Yards / Rush
2.8
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.07
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
21
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
30%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-15.95
-12.87
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-5
-50
Sack EPA
-0.35
-6.92
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
86
40
Penalty EPA
-7.84
-3.48
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-26
Home nfelo
1,534
Away nfelo
1,585
Home Field
+34.5
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
-17.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-9.7
Home QB Adjustment
-7.8
Away QB Adjustment
+1.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-7.8
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
12
Yards / Game
11
28
Passing Yards / Game
26
32
Rushing Yards / Game
7
17
EPA
EPA / Play
11
17
EPA / Pass
8
24
EPA / Rush
15
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
7
Interceptions / Game
20
22
Fumbles / Game
30
18
Turnover EPA / Game
19
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
15
4th Down Efficiency
24
3
RZ Efficiency
6
3
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
5
Yards / Game
20
4
Passing Yards / Game
24
19
Rushing Yards / Game
10
6
EPA
EPA / Play
13
13
EPA / Pass
17
13
EPA / Rush
6
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
24
Interceptions / Game
2
26
Fumbles / Game
5
15
Turnover EPA / Game
31
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
21
4th Down Efficiency
32
5
RZ Efficiency
3
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Seahawks
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
1-8-1
O/U