SF49ers
7-6
7
TBD
Lumen Field
46°F
4 mph
17
SEASeahawks
9-4
TBD
Lumen Field
46°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
7
0
0
7
Seahawks
3
0
7
7
17
Spread
-9.5
Total
UNDER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
245
290
Total Plays
57
61
Yards / Play
4.3
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.05
Passing Yards
105
138
Comp/Att
11/19(58%)
12/24(50%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.07
Rushing Yards
140
152
Rush Attempts
32
32
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
18
Passing 1st downs
7
5
Rushing 1st downs
7
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
40%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-1.61
Sacks
6
5
Sack Yards
-36
-30
Sack EPA
-9.40
-5.46
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
78
50
Penalty EPA
-4.44
-5.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+179
Home nfelo
1,656
Away nfelo
1,583
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+51.1
Home QB Adjustment
+16.0
Away QB Adjustment
-35.1
Market Regression
-7.6
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-35.1
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+16.0
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
1
Yards / Game
21
1
Passing Yards / Game
27
6
Rushing Yards / Game
4
4
EPA
EPA / Play
20
4
EPA / Pass
18
4
EPA / Rush
20
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
12
Interceptions / Game
4
13
Fumbles / Game
19
15
Turnover EPA / Game
17
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
16
4th Down Efficiency
8
28
RZ Efficiency
29
22
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
10
Yards / Game
8
5
Passing Yards / Game
13
14
Rushing Yards / Game
1
7
EPA
EPA / Play
8
18
EPA / Pass
10
15
EPA / Rush
1
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
3
Interceptions / Game
5
1
Fumbles / Game
9
25
Turnover EPA / Game
31
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
26
4th Down Efficiency
29
19
RZ Efficiency
19
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Seahawks
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U