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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ seahawks week 15, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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SF logo
SF49ers
7-6
7
TBD
Lumen Field
46°F
4 mph
17
SEASeahawks
9-4
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
46°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
7
0
0
7
Seahawks
3
0
7
7
17

Spread

SEA logo
-9.5

Total

UNDER
38

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
245
290
Total Plays
57
61
Yards / Play
4.3
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.05
Passing Yards
105
138
Comp/Att
11/19(58%)
12/24(50%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.07
Rushing Yards
140
152
Rush Attempts
32
32
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
14
18
Passing 1st downs
7
5
Rushing 1st downs
7
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
40%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-1.61
Sacks
6
5
Sack Yards
-36
-30
Sack EPA
-9.40
-5.46
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
78
50
Penalty EPA
-4.44
-5.46

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+181
Home nfelo
1,656
Away nfelo
1,583
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+51.1
Home QB Adjustment
+16.0
Away QB Adjustment
-35.1
Market Regression
-7.7
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5

Quarterbacks

C. Kaepernick headshot

C. Kaepernick

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-35.1
Value
Ptile
09/28
-0.7
45
10/05
-3.1
29
10/13
10.4
97
10/19
-4.3
24
11/02
-6.5
12
11/09
-4.5
23
11/16
-1.0
43
11/23
-1.4
40
11/27
-9.9
4
12/07
-9.3
5
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+16.0
Value
Ptile
10/06
10.7
98
10/12
-6.0
15
10/19
11.6
98
10/26
-0.6
46
11/02
-4.3
24
11/09
1.1
57
11/16
4.9
82
11/23
0.6
53
11/27
1.5
61
12/07
6.6
87

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
49ers logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
25
1
Yards / Game
21
1
Passing Yards / Game
27
6
Rushing Yards / Game
4
4

EPA

EPA / Play
20
4
EPA / Pass
18
4
EPA / Rush
20
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
12
Interceptions / Game
4
13
Fumbles / Game
19
15
Turnover EPA / Game
17
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
16
4th Down Efficiency
8
28
RZ Efficiency
29
22
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Seahawks logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
9
10
Yards / Game
8
5
Passing Yards / Game
13
14
Rushing Yards / Game
1
7

EPA

EPA / Play
8
18
EPA / Pass
10
15
EPA / Rush
1
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
3
Interceptions / Game
5
1
Fumbles / Game
9
25
Turnover EPA / Game
31
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
26
4th Down Efficiency
29
19
RZ Efficiency
19
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/28
5
W
W
U
10/05
5
W
W
U
10/13
14
W
W
O
10/19
-25
L
L
O
11/02
-3
L
L
U
11/09
3
W
W
O
11/16
6
W
W
U
11/23
4
W
L
U
11/27
-16
L
L
U
12/07
-11
L
L
U
SEA logo

Seahawks

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
10
W
W
U
10/12
-7
L
L
O
10/19
-2
L
L
O
10/26
4
W
L
U
11/02
6
W
L
O
11/09
21
W
W
O
11/16
-4
L
L
O
11/23
16
W
W
U
11/27
16
W
W
U
12/07
10
W
W
U