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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ seahawks week 15, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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How nfelo works

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  • Games
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
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  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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SF logo
SF49ers
9-4
21
TBD
Lumen Field
70°F
0
13
SEASeahawks
7-6
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
7
7
0
21
Seahawks
0
3
3
7
13

Spread

SF logo
-3

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
381
277
Total Plays
61
61
Yards / Play
6.2
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.14
Passing Yards
211
207
Comp/Att
17/26(65%)
31/44(70%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
4.7
EPA / Pass
+0.26
-0.34
Rushing Yards
170
70
Rush Attempts
34
14
Yards / Rush
5.0
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.01
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
15
16
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
46%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-6.27
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-6
-31
Sack EPA
-1.53
-6.69
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
60
79
Penalty EPA
-8.55
-8.14

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-38
Home nfelo
1,459
Away nfelo
1,660
Home Field
+36.6
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
-18.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+126.7
Home QB Adjustment
+13.0
Away QB Adjustment
-113.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

B. Purdy headshot

B. Purdy

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-113.7
Value
Ptile
12/11
5.8
88
E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+13.0
Value
Ptile
10/02
11.2
98
10/09
4.1
81
10/16
-3.9
24
10/23
-0.1
51
10/30
1.8
66
11/06
3.6
79
11/13
4.2
81
11/27
1.3
61
12/04
4.2
82
12/11
-1.0
45

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
49ers logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
6
25
Yards / Game
6
28
Passing Yards / Game
27
23
Rushing Yards / Game
7
30

EPA

EPA / Play
6
29
EPA / Pass
2
25
EPA / Rush
23
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
9
Interceptions / Game
3
16
Fumbles / Game
26
7
Turnover EPA / Game
31
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
27
4th Down Efficiency
29
3
RZ Efficiency
19
23
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Seahawks logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
10
1
Yards / Game
13
2
Passing Yards / Game
8
19
Rushing Yards / Game
18
2

EPA

EPA / Play
10
1
EPA / Pass
15
2
EPA / Rush
16
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
27
Interceptions / Game
12
2
Fumbles / Game
27
19
Turnover EPA / Game
6
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
13
4th Down Efficiency
6
16
RZ Efficiency
27
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/03
15
W
W
U
10/09
22
W
W
O
10/16
-14
L
L
U
10/23
-21
L
L
O
10/30
17
W
W
O
11/13
6
W
L
U
11/21
28
W
W
O
11/27
13
W
W
U
12/04
16
W
W
O
12/11
28
W
W
O
SEA logo

Seahawks

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/02
3
W
W
O
10/09
-7
L
L
O
10/16
10
W
W
U
10/23
14
W
W
O
10/30
14
W
W
U
11/06
10
W
W
O
11/13
-5
L
L
U
11/27
-6
L
L
O
12/04
4
W
L
O
12/11
-6
L
L
O