SF49ers
9-4
21
TBD
Lumen Field
70°F
013
SEASeahawks
7-6
TBD
Lumen Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
7
7
7
0
21
Seahawks
0
3
3
7
13
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
381
277
Total Plays
61
61
Yards / Play
6.2
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.14
Passing Yards
211
207
Comp/Att
17/26(65%)
31/44(70%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
4.7
EPA / Pass
+0.26
-0.34
Rushing Yards
170
70
Rush Attempts
34
14
Yards / Rush
5.0
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.01
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
16
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
46%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-6.27
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-6
-31
Sack EPA
-1.53
-6.69
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
60
79
Penalty EPA
-8.55
-8.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-37
Home nfelo
1,461
Away nfelo
1,662
Home Field
+36.6
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
-18.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+126.7
Home QB Adjustment
+13.0
Away QB Adjustment
-113.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
-113.7
Value
Ptile
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+13.0
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
25
Yards / Game
6
28
Passing Yards / Game
27
23
Rushing Yards / Game
7
30
EPA
EPA / Play
6
29
EPA / Pass
2
25
EPA / Rush
23
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
9
Interceptions / Game
3
16
Fumbles / Game
26
7
Turnover EPA / Game
31
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
27
4th Down Efficiency
29
3
RZ Efficiency
19
23
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
1
Yards / Game
13
2
Passing Yards / Game
8
19
Rushing Yards / Game
18
2
EPA
EPA / Play
10
1
EPA / Pass
15
2
EPA / Rush
16
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
27
Interceptions / Game
12
2
Fumbles / Game
27
19
Turnover EPA / Game
6
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
13
4th Down Efficiency
6
16
RZ Efficiency
27
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Seahawks
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U