SF49ers
11-3
19
TBD
Lumen Field
48°F
8 mph
17
SEASeahawks
7-7
TBD
Lumen Field
48°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
3
10
6
19
Seahawks
7
3
0
7
17
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
36.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
349
265
Total Plays
68
58
Yards / Play
5.1
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.08
Passing Yards
171
141
Comp/Att
14/26(54%)
15/28(54%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.02
-0.17
Rushing Yards
178
124
Rush Attempts
40
26
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.10
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
14
Passing 1st downs
8
7
Rushing 1st downs
10
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
21%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-2.73
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-8
-22
Sack EPA
-2.63
-6.90
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
77
51
Penalty EPA
-6.61
-5.68
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-47
Home nfelo
1,490
Away nfelo
1,602
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.0
Home QB Adjustment
+11.2
Away QB Adjustment
+2.2
Market Regression
-21.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.2
T. Jackson
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
+11.2
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
7
Yards / Game
24
9
Passing Yards / Game
29
12
Rushing Yards / Game
8
15
EPA
EPA / Play
12
5
EPA / Pass
14
3
EPA / Rush
17
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
4
Interceptions / Game
1
3
Fumbles / Game
8
18
Turnover EPA / Game
32
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
10
4th Down Efficiency
3
30
RZ Efficiency
30
12
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
2
Yards / Game
28
7
Passing Yards / Game
23
29
Rushing Yards / Game
20
1
EPA
EPA / Play
25
1
EPA / Pass
20
5
EPA / Rush
27
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
7
Interceptions / Game
13
2
Fumbles / Game
17
1
Turnover EPA / Game
22
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
11
4th Down Efficiency
10
11
RZ Efficiency
21
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Seahawks
6-4
SU
7-2-1
ATS
7-3
O/U