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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ seahawks week 16, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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SF logo
SF49ers
11-3
19
TBD
Lumen Field
48°F
8 mph
17
SEASeahawks
7-7
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
48°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
3
10
6
19
Seahawks
7
3
0
7
17

Spread

SEA logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
36.5

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
349
265
Total Plays
68
58
Yards / Play
5.1
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.08
Passing Yards
171
141
Comp/Att
14/26(54%)
15/28(54%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.02
-0.17
Rushing Yards
178
124
Rush Attempts
40
26
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.10
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
21
14
Passing 1st downs
8
7
Rushing 1st downs
10
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
21%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-2.73
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-8
-22
Sack EPA
-2.63
-6.90
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
77
51
Penalty EPA
-6.61
-5.68

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-49
Home nfelo
1,489
Away nfelo
1,602
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.0
Home QB Adjustment
+11.2
Away QB Adjustment
+2.2
Market Regression
-21.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.2
Value
Ptile
10/09
3.7
75
10/16
-5.5
16
10/30
2.2
67
11/06
0.6
56
11/13
0.8
58
11/20
2.0
66
11/24
-10.6
1
12/04
3.6
75
12/11
-8.3
5
12/19
2.8
71
T. Jackson headshot

T. Jackson

Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
+11.2
Value
Ptile
09/25
-3.9
26
10/02
5.5
84
10/09
-3.8
27
11/06
-6.7
11
11/13
1.0
60
11/20
-7.5
8
11/27
-4.7
21
12/01
-0.3
50
12/12
1.1
60
12/18
1.2
61

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
49ers logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
9
7
Yards / Game
24
9
Passing Yards / Game
29
12
Rushing Yards / Game
8
15

EPA

EPA / Play
12
5
EPA / Pass
14
3
EPA / Rush
17
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
4
Interceptions / Game
1
3
Fumbles / Game
8
18
Turnover EPA / Game
32
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
10
4th Down Efficiency
3
30
RZ Efficiency
30
12
Seahawks Offense vs 49ers Defense
Seahawks logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
23
2
Yards / Game
28
7
Passing Yards / Game
23
29
Rushing Yards / Game
20
1

EPA

EPA / Play
25
1
EPA / Pass
20
5
EPA / Rush
27
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
7
Interceptions / Game
13
2
Fumbles / Game
17
1
Turnover EPA / Game
22
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
11
4th Down Efficiency
10
11
RZ Efficiency
21
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
45
W
W
O
10/16
6
W
W
U
10/30
10
W
W
U
11/06
8
W
W
U
11/13
7
W
W
O
11/20
16
W
W
U
11/24
-10
L
L
U
12/04
26
W
W
U
12/11
-2
L
L
O
12/19
17
W
W
U
SEA logo

Seahawks

6-4
SU
7-2-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
11
W
W
O
10/23
-3
L
P
U
10/30
-22
L
L
O
11/06
-10
L
W
U
11/13
5
W
W
O
11/20
17
W
W
U
11/27
-6
L
L
O
12/01
17
W
W
O
12/12
17
W
W
O
12/18
24
W
W
O