nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. 49ers @ steelers week 1, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

SF logo
SF49ers
-
30
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
70°F
0
7
PITSteelers
-
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
10
10
7
3
30
Steelers
0
7
0
0
7

Spread

SF logo
-1

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
49ers logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
391
239
Total Plays
66
61
Yards / Play
5.9
3.9
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.36
Passing Yards
203
198
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
31/46(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
4.3
EPA / Pass
+0.23
-0.44
Rushing Yards
188
41
Rush Attempts
34
10
Yards / Rush
5.5
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
49ers logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
22
15
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
46%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
49ers logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.00
-8.68
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-17
-34
Sack EPA
-10.18
-7.99
Penalties
11
6
Penalty Yards
85
60
Penalty EPA
-8.50
-4.72

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-29
Home nfelo
1,544
Away nfelo
1,639
Home Field
+65.2
Base HFA
+42.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.8
Net QB Adjustment
+0.7
Home QB Adjustment
-7.0
Away QB Adjustment
-7.7
Market Regression
+52.3
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

B. Purdy headshot

B. Purdy

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-7.7
Value
Ptile
12/11
5.8
88
12/15
1.5
64
12/24
-1.1
45
01/01
0.7
57
01/08
-0.9
46
01/14
9.7
96
01/22
-0.3
50
01/29
-3.9
24
K. Pickett headshot

K. Pickett

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-7.0
Value
Ptile
10/23
-2.3
34
10/30
-5.7
14
11/13
-1.8
39
11/20
1.8
67
11/28
-2.0
38
12/04
-1.6
42
12/11
-7.0
9
12/24
-0.2
50
01/01
-3.4
26
01/08
-1.7
40

Team Matchup Ranks

49ers Offense vs Steelers Defense
49ers logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
2
8
Yards / Game
1
21
Passing Yards / Game
1
23
Rushing Yards / Game
4
21

EPA

EPA / Play
1
10
EPA / Pass
1
10
EPA / Rush
5
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
25
Interceptions / Game
12
13
Fumbles / Game
9
5
Turnover EPA / Game
24
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
21
4th Down Efficiency
13
11
RZ Efficiency
1
6
Steelers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Steelers logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
28
4
Yards / Game
25
9
Passing Yards / Game
26
17
Rushing Yards / Game
11
5

EPA

EPA / Play
25
18
EPA / Pass
24
8
EPA / Rush
20
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
27
Interceptions / Game
5
2
Fumbles / Game
8
28
Turnover EPA / Game
27
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
27
4th Down Efficiency
25
14
RZ Efficiency
25
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

SF logo

49ers

9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/27
13
W
W
U
12/04
16
W
W
O
12/11
28
W
W
O
12/15
8
W
W
U
12/24
17
W
W
O
01/01
3
W
L
O
01/08
25
W
W
O
01/14
18
W
W
O
01/22
7
W
W
U
01/29
-24
L
L
U
PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/30
-22
L
L
O
11/13
10
W
W
U
11/20
-7
L
L
O
11/28
7
W
W
O
12/04
3
W
W
U
12/11
-2
L
L
U
12/18
8
W
W
O
12/24
3
W
W
U
01/01
3
W
W
U
01/08
14
W
W
O