SF49ers
-
30
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
70°F
07
PITSteelers
-
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
10
10
7
3
30
Steelers
0
7
0
0
7
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
391
239
Total Plays
66
61
Yards / Play
5.9
3.9
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.36
Passing Yards
203
198
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
31/46(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
4.3
EPA / Pass
+0.23
-0.44
Rushing Yards
188
41
Rush Attempts
34
10
Yards / Rush
5.5
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
15
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
46%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.00
-8.68
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-17
-34
Sack EPA
-10.18
-7.99
Penalties
11
6
Penalty Yards
85
60
Penalty EPA
-8.50
-4.72
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-27
Home nfelo
1,546
Away nfelo
1,638
Home Field
+65.2
Base HFA
+42.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.8
Net QB Adjustment
+0.7
Home QB Adjustment
-7.0
Away QB Adjustment
-7.7
Market Regression
+52.3
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
-7.7
K. Pickett
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-7.0
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
8
Yards / Game
1
21
Passing Yards / Game
1
23
Rushing Yards / Game
4
21
EPA
EPA / Play
1
10
EPA / Pass
1
10
EPA / Rush
5
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
25
Interceptions / Game
12
13
Fumbles / Game
9
5
Turnover EPA / Game
24
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
21
4th Down Efficiency
13
11
RZ Efficiency
1
6
Steelers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
4
Yards / Game
25
9
Passing Yards / Game
26
17
Rushing Yards / Game
11
5
EPA
EPA / Play
25
18
EPA / Pass
24
8
EPA / Rush
20
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
27
Interceptions / Game
5
2
Fumbles / Game
8
28
Turnover EPA / Game
27
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
27
4th Down Efficiency
25
14
RZ Efficiency
25
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Steelers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U