SF49ers
1-0
18
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
66°F
10 mph
43
PITSteelers
0-1
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
66°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
3
0
15
18
Steelers
8
21
0
14
43
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
411
457
Total Plays
83
54
Yards / Play
5.0
8.5
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.53
Passing Yards
300
--
Comp/Att
33/47(70%)
21/29(72%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
--
EPA / Pass
+0.26
+0.88
Rushing Yards
111
84
Rush Attempts
31
25
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.21
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
21
Passing 1st downs
18
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
41%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
10
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
5
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.07
--
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-37
--
Sack EPA
-7.03
--
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
46
58
Penalty EPA
-5.77
-7.89
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+133
Home nfelo
1,537
Away nfelo
1,514
Home Field
+96.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+14.0
Home QB Adjustment
+11.1
Away QB Adjustment
-3.0
Market Regression
-14.1
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.0
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+11.1
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
9
Yards / Game
31
19
Passing Yards / Game
23
30
Rushing Yards / Game
21
5
EPA
EPA / Play
30
9
EPA / Pass
29
13
EPA / Rush
9
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
18
Interceptions / Game
11
8
Fumbles / Game
1
2
Turnover EPA / Game
28
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
15
4th Down Efficiency
21
4
RZ Efficiency
31
6
Steelers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
17
Yards / Game
3
29
Passing Yards / Game
13
1
Rushing Yards / Game
14
29
EPA
EPA / Play
9
27
EPA / Pass
12
29
EPA / Rush
7
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
2
Interceptions / Game
29
26
Fumbles / Game
7
30
Turnover EPA / Game
16
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
18
4th Down Efficiency
29
20
RZ Efficiency
13
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Steelers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U