SF49ers
-
16
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
024
MINVikings
-
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
3
10
3
16
Vikings
3
7
8
0
18
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
327
343
Total Plays
61
71
Yards / Play
5.4
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.30
-0.19
Passing Yards
237
227
Comp/Att
15/33(45%)
20/36(56%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.41
+0.01
Rushing Yards
90
116
Rush Attempts
25
32
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.44
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
38%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-22.21
-4.37
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-24
-17
Sack EPA
-5.30
-3.53
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
21
52
Penalty EPA
-4.31
-7.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+196
Home nfelo
1,622
Away nfelo
1,512
Home Field
+96.2
Base HFA
+56.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.7
Time Adj
+20.2
Net QB Adjustment
-9.8
Home QB Adjustment
-2.3
Away QB Adjustment
+7.5
Market Regression
-2.5
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+7.5
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-2.3
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
10
Yards / Game
14
4
Passing Yards / Game
16
3
Rushing Yards / Game
12
14
EPA
EPA / Play
21
2
EPA / Pass
20
1
EPA / Rush
28
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
17
Interceptions / Game
30
20
Fumbles / Game
25
19
Turnover EPA / Game
1
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
1
4th Down Efficiency
19
6
RZ Efficiency
32
3
Vikings Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
28
Yards / Game
20
13
Passing Yards / Game
6
20
Rushing Yards / Game
29
13
EPA
EPA / Play
27
26
EPA / Pass
25
28
EPA / Rush
32
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
9
Interceptions / Game
8
32
Fumbles / Game
25
26
Turnover EPA / Game
10
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
21
4th Down Efficiency
29
18
RZ Efficiency
21
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Vikings
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U