SF49ers
1-0
17
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
023
MINVikings
1-0
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
49ers
0
7
0
10
17
Vikings
3
10
7
3
23
Spread
+4
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
396
403
Total Plays
67
54
Yards / Play
5.9
7.5
EPA / Play
-0.17
-0.07
Passing Yards
294
257
Comp/Att
28/36(78%)
17/26(65%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
9.9
EPA / Pass
+0.02
-0.29
Rushing Yards
102
146
Rush Attempts
25
24
Yards / Rush
4.1
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.22
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
17
Passing 1st downs
17
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
20%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.16
-10.30
Sacks
6
4
Sack Yards
-25
-11
Sack EPA
-11.29
-4.38
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
--
53
Penalty EPA
--
-9.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-64
Home nfelo
1,528
Away nfelo
1,655
Home Field
+79.6
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
+16.7
Net QB Adjustment
-15.9
Home QB Adjustment
-11.7
Away QB Adjustment
+4.2
Market Regression
-2.6
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.2
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-11.7
Team Matchup Ranks
49ers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
4
Yards / Game
4
14
Passing Yards / Game
2
31
Rushing Yards / Game
11
2
EPA
EPA / Play
11
2
EPA / Pass
9
7
EPA / Rush
13
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
4
Interceptions / Game
26
1
Fumbles / Game
22
13
Turnover EPA / Game
7
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
2
4th Down Efficiency
23
1
RZ Efficiency
14
18
Vikings Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
29
Yards / Game
12
7
Passing Yards / Game
3
2
Rushing Yards / Game
19
18
EPA
EPA / Play
17
30
EPA / Pass
17
14
EPA / Rush
23
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
21
Interceptions / Game
18
18
Fumbles / Game
19
19
Turnover EPA / Game
11
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
25
4th Down Efficiency
29
26
RZ Efficiency
19
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
49ers
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Vikings
4-6
SU
4-4-2
ATS
6-4
O/U