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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ broncos week 14, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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CHI logo
CHIBears
7-5
10
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
50°F
7 mph
13
DENBroncos
7-5
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
50°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Bears
0
0
7
3
0
10
Broncos
0
0
0
10
3
13

Spread

CHI logo
DEN logo
3
P

Total

UNDER
35

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
245
345
Total Plays
61
79
Yards / Play
4.0
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.21
-0.14
Passing Yards
86
221
Comp/Att
12/19(63%)
21/40(53%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.38
-0.13
Rushing Yards
159
124
Rush Attempts
38
34
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
12
20
Passing 1st downs
5
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
13%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
17
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-3.63
-7.27
Sacks
4
5
Sack Yards
-29
-15
Sack EPA
-6.02
-8.95
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
69
28
Penalty EPA
-6.30
-2.93

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+72
Home nfelo
1,471
Away nfelo
1,592
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+118.7
Home QB Adjustment
+14.7
Away QB Adjustment
-104.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

C. Hanie headshot

C. Hanie

Proj. Value
-6.5
Team Elo Adj
-104.0
Value
Ptile
11/27
-3.4
28
12/04
-16.4
0
T. Tebow headshot

T. Tebow

Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+14.7
Value
Ptile
12/19
4.5
80
12/26
2.6
66
01/02
2.3
64
10/23
-3.1
30
10/30
-7.2
9
11/06
6.5
88
11/13
0.8
58
11/17
2.4
69
11/27
-0.1
51
12/04
0.5
55

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Broncos Defense
Bears logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
17
26
Yards / Game
25
23
Passing Yards / Game
30
24
Rushing Yards / Game
9
23

EPA

EPA / Play
24
22
EPA / Pass
30
24
EPA / Rush
19
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
11
Interceptions / Game
25
27
Fumbles / Game
22
22
Turnover EPA / Game
8
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
8
4th Down Efficiency
30
6
RZ Efficiency
12
19
Broncos Offense vs Bears Defense
Broncos logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
25
14
Yards / Game
20
17
Passing Yards / Game
32
22
Rushing Yards / Game
1
5

EPA

EPA / Play
23
4
EPA / Pass
27
9
EPA / Rush
10
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
5
Interceptions / Game
5
5
Fumbles / Game
32
18
Turnover EPA / Game
9
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
9
4th Down Efficiency
28
14
RZ Efficiency
26
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/25
-10
L
L
U
10/02
5
W
L
O
10/10
-11
L
L
U
10/16
29
W
W
O
10/23
6
W
W
U
11/07
6
W
W
O
11/13
24
W
W
O
11/20
11
W
W
O
11/27
-5
L
L
O
12/04
-7
L
L
U
DEN logo

Broncos

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/25
-3
L
W
U
10/02
-26
L
L
O
10/09
-5
L
L
O
10/23
3
W
W
U
10/30
-35
L
L
O
11/06
14
W
W
O
11/13
7
W
W
U
11/17
4
W
W
U
11/27
3
W
W
U
12/04
3
W
W
O