CHIBears
7-5
10
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
50°F
7 mph
13
DENBroncos
7-5
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
50°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Bears
0
0
7
3
0
10
Broncos
0
0
0
10
3
13
Spread
3
P
Total
UNDER
35
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
245
345
Total Plays
61
79
Yards / Play
4.0
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.21
-0.14
Passing Yards
86
221
Comp/Att
12/19(63%)
21/40(53%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.38
-0.13
Rushing Yards
159
124
Rush Attempts
38
34
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
20
Passing 1st downs
5
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
13%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
17
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-3.63
-7.27
Sacks
4
5
Sack Yards
-29
-15
Sack EPA
-6.02
-8.95
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
69
28
Penalty EPA
-6.30
-2.93
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+67
Home nfelo
1,470
Away nfelo
1,596
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+118.7
Home QB Adjustment
+14.7
Away QB Adjustment
-104.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Hanie
Proj. Value
-6.5
Team Elo Adj
-104.0
Value
Ptile
T. Tebow
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+14.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
26
Yards / Game
25
23
Passing Yards / Game
30
24
Rushing Yards / Game
9
23
EPA
EPA / Play
24
22
EPA / Pass
30
24
EPA / Rush
19
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
11
Interceptions / Game
25
27
Fumbles / Game
22
22
Turnover EPA / Game
8
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
8
4th Down Efficiency
30
6
RZ Efficiency
12
19
Broncos Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
14
Yards / Game
20
17
Passing Yards / Game
32
22
Rushing Yards / Game
1
5
EPA
EPA / Play
23
4
EPA / Pass
27
9
EPA / Rush
10
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
5
Interceptions / Game
5
5
Fumbles / Game
32
18
Turnover EPA / Game
9
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
9
4th Down Efficiency
28
14
RZ Efficiency
26
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Broncos
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U