CHIBears
0-1
7
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
88°F
7 mph
29
TBBuccaneers
-
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
88°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
0
0
7
7
Buccaneers
10
10
0
3
23
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
310
311
Total Plays
62
67
Yards / Play
5.0
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.29
+0.10
Passing Yards
290
194
Comp/Att
31/45(69%)
18/31(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.15
+0.05
Rushing Yards
20
117
Rush Attempts
16
34
Yards / Rush
1.3
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.53
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
22
Passing 1st downs
16
13
Rushing 1st downs
1
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
50%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
7
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
33%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-18.63
-1.38
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-11
-10
Sack EPA
-4.52
-2.57
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
59
34
Penalty EPA
-9.56
-4.04
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+132
Home nfelo
1,487
Away nfelo
1,435
Home Field
+67.8
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+13.2
Home QB Adjustment
-5.9
Away QB Adjustment
-19.1
Market Regression
+15.5
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
M. Glennon
Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-19.1
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-5.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
22
Yards / Game
30
32
Passing Yards / Game
24
3
Rushing Yards / Game
16
23
EPA
EPA / Play
27
28
EPA / Pass
28
29
EPA / Rush
17
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
13
Interceptions / Game
13
15
Fumbles / Game
25
9
Turnover EPA / Game
15
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
32
4th Down Efficiency
23
1
RZ Efficiency
5
18
Buccaneers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
8
Yards / Game
7
7
Passing Yards / Game
1
21
Rushing Yards / Game
27
10
EPA
EPA / Play
13
11
EPA / Pass
11
13
EPA / Rush
25
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
16
Interceptions / Game
20
29
Fumbles / Game
32
1
Turnover EPA / Game
8
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
20
4th Down Efficiency
13
22
RZ Efficiency
23
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
2-8
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Buccaneers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U