nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ buccaneers week 2, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

CHI logo
CHIBears
0-1
17
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
70°F
0
27
TBBuccaneers
1-0
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
7
3
0
7
17
Buccaneers
3
10
7
1
21

Spread

TB logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
41

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
236
437
Total Plays
51
68
Yards / Play
4.6
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.05
Passing Yards
169
--
Comp/Att
16/29(55%)
26/34(76%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.30
+0.39
Rushing Yards
67
120
Rush Attempts
16
34
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
14
19
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
46%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.19
--
Sacks
6
--
Sack Yards
-42
--
Sack EPA
-6.90
--
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
28
54
Penalty EPA
-3.97
-6.70

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+76
Home nfelo
1,452
Away nfelo
1,385
Home Field
+50.7
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
-42.0
Home QB Adjustment
-36.6
Away QB Adjustment
+5.4
Market Regression
+11.6
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

J. Fields headshot

J. Fields

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.4
Value
Ptile
10/24
1.5
63
10/30
5.6
87
11/06
12.8
99
11/13
8.1
93
11/20
-2.0
38
12/04
6.4
90
12/18
2.2
70
12/24
-2.3
34
01/01
-8.3
5
09/10
-0.6
45
B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-36.6
Value
Ptile
09/25
-4.5
21
10/02
-6.7
10
10/09
-6.5
11
11/20
-8.3
5
12/08
-4.5
21
12/19
-9.3
3
12/25
7.7
92
01/01
-5.2
17
01/08
-9.8
2
09/10
-0.5
46

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Bears logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
19
5
Yards / Game
21
20
Passing Yards / Game
23
31
Rushing Yards / Game
2
4

EPA

EPA / Play
23
15
EPA / Pass
25
22
EPA / Rush
3
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
13
Interceptions / Game
22
18
Fumbles / Game
16
4
Turnover EPA / Game
10
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
22
4th Down Efficiency
16
7
RZ Efficiency
14
3
Buccaneers Offense vs Bears Defense
Buccaneers logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
18
19
Yards / Game
20
12
Passing Yards / Game
8
9
Rushing Yards / Game
31
1

EPA

EPA / Play
13
8
EPA / Pass
8
18
EPA / Rush
30
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
7
Interceptions / Game
9
1
Fumbles / Game
13
26
Turnover EPA / Game
28
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
29
4th Down Efficiency
2
4
RZ Efficiency
27
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

0-10
SU
2-7-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/06
-3
L
W
O
11/13
-1
L
L
O
11/20
-3
L
P
O
11/27
-21
L
L
O
12/04
-9
L
L
O
12/18
-5
L
W
U
12/24
-22
L
L
O
01/01
-31
L
L
U
01/08
-16
L
L
U
09/10
-18
L
L
O
TB logo

Buccaneers

5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
5
W
W
U
11/27
-6
L
L
U
12/05
1
W
L
U
12/11
-28
L
L
O
12/18
-11
L
L
O
12/25
3
W
L
U
01/01
6
W
W
O
01/08
-13
L
L
O
01/16
-17
L
L
U
09/10
3
W
W
U