CHIBears
0-1
17
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
70°F
027
TBBuccaneers
1-0
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
7
3
0
7
17
Buccaneers
3
10
7
1
21
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
236
437
Total Plays
51
68
Yards / Play
4.6
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.05
Passing Yards
169
--
Comp/Att
16/29(55%)
26/34(76%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.30
+0.39
Rushing Yards
67
120
Rush Attempts
16
34
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
19
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
46%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.19
--
Sacks
6
--
Sack Yards
-42
--
Sack EPA
-6.90
--
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
28
54
Penalty EPA
-3.97
-6.70
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+76
Home nfelo
1,452
Away nfelo
1,385
Home Field
+50.7
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
-41.9
Home QB Adjustment
-36.5
Away QB Adjustment
+5.3
Market Regression
+11.7
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
+5.3
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-36.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
5
Yards / Game
21
20
Passing Yards / Game
23
31
Rushing Yards / Game
2
4
EPA
EPA / Play
23
15
EPA / Pass
25
22
EPA / Rush
3
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
13
Interceptions / Game
22
18
Fumbles / Game
16
4
Turnover EPA / Game
10
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
22
4th Down Efficiency
16
7
RZ Efficiency
14
3
Buccaneers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
19
Yards / Game
20
12
Passing Yards / Game
8
9
Rushing Yards / Game
31
1
EPA
EPA / Play
13
8
EPA / Pass
8
18
EPA / Rush
30
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
7
Interceptions / Game
9
1
Fumbles / Game
13
26
Turnover EPA / Game
28
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
29
4th Down Efficiency
2
4
RZ Efficiency
27
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
0-10
SU
2-7-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U