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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ buccaneers week 7, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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CHI logo
CHIBears
3-3
3
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
83°F
7 mph
38
TBBuccaneers
5-1
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
83°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
3
0
0
3
Buccaneers
21
14
0
3
38

Spread

TB logo
-11.5

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
311
408
Total Plays
65
70
Yards / Play
4.8
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.52
+0.06
Passing Yards
168
--
Comp/Att
22/32(69%)
22/39(56%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.80
+0.22
Rushing Yards
143
182
Rush Attempts
29
31
Yards / Rush
4.9
5.9
EPA / Rush
-0.10
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
17
28
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
18%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
0%
71%
Red Zone Conversions
--
5
Red Zone Attempts
2
7
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
5
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-21.66
-4.40
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-16
--
Sack EPA
-14.64
--
Penalties
4
1
Penalty Yards
32
--
Penalty EPA
-3.80
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-11.5
Model
-11.5

Win Probability

Market82.6%
Model82.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+308
Home nfelo
1,676
Away nfelo
1,469
Home Field
+33.8
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.4
Net QB Adjustment
+67.2
Home QB Adjustment
+28.6
Away QB Adjustment
-38.6
Market Regression
-29.4
Final Difference
270.6
Model Spread
-11.5

Quarterbacks

J. Fields headshot

J. Fields

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-38.6
Value
Ptile
09/26
-18.2
0
10/03
-5.6
16
10/10
-5.7
16
10/17
-4.1
24
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+28.6
Value
Ptile
01/09
2.1
59
01/17
2.3
62
01/24
-1.7
31
02/07
2.6
64
09/09
6.2
89
09/19
4.3
80
09/26
10.9
97
10/03
-1.7
41
10/10
12.7
98
10/14
5.6
86

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Bears logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
27
7
Yards / Game
24
15
Passing Yards / Game
21
31
Rushing Yards / Game
15
3

EPA

EPA / Play
27
4
EPA / Pass
30
4
EPA / Rush
18
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
31
Interceptions / Game
29
8
Fumbles / Game
20
4
Turnover EPA / Game
4
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
10
4th Down Efficiency
28
8
RZ Efficiency
30
6
Buccaneers Offense vs Bears Defense
Buccaneers logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
2
21
Yards / Game
3
5
Passing Yards / Game
9
6
Rushing Yards / Game
26
22

EPA

EPA / Play
4
16
EPA / Pass
6
20
EPA / Rush
11
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
2
Interceptions / Game
9
29
Fumbles / Game
19
11
Turnover EPA / Game
29
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
11
4th Down Efficiency
17
11
RZ Efficiency
1
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/20
6
W
W
O
12/27
24
W
W
O
01/03
-19
L
L
O
01/10
-12
L
L
U
09/12
-20
L
L
O
09/19
3
W
W
U
09/26
-20
L
L
U
10/03
10
W
W
U
10/10
11
W
W
U
10/17
-10
L
L
U
TB logo

Buccaneers

9-1
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/09
8
W
L
O
01/17
10
W
W
U
01/24
5
W
W
O
02/07
22
W
W
U
09/09
2
W
L
O
09/19
23
W
W
O
09/26
-10
L
L
O
10/03
2
W
L
U
10/10
28
W
W
O
10/14
6
W
L
U