CHIBears
3-3
3
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
83°F
7 mph
38
TBBuccaneers
5-1
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
83°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
3
0
0
3
Buccaneers
21
14
0
3
38
Spread
-11.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
311
408
Total Plays
65
70
Yards / Play
4.8
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.52
+0.06
Passing Yards
168
--
Comp/Att
22/32(69%)
22/39(56%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.80
+0.22
Rushing Yards
143
182
Rush Attempts
29
31
Yards / Rush
4.9
5.9
EPA / Rush
-0.10
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
28
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
18%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
0%
71%
Red Zone Conversions
--
5
Red Zone Attempts
2
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-21.66
-4.40
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-16
--
Sack EPA
-14.64
--
Penalties
4
1
Penalty Yards
32
--
Penalty EPA
-3.80
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-11.5
Model
-11.5
Win Probability
Market82.6%
Model82.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+308
Home nfelo
1,676
Away nfelo
1,469
Home Field
+33.8
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.4
Net QB Adjustment
+67.2
Home QB Adjustment
+28.6
Away QB Adjustment
-38.6
Market Regression
-29.4
Final Difference
270.6
Model Spread
-11.5
Quarterbacks
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-38.6
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+28.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
7
Yards / Game
24
15
Passing Yards / Game
21
31
Rushing Yards / Game
15
3
EPA
EPA / Play
27
4
EPA / Pass
30
4
EPA / Rush
18
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
31
Interceptions / Game
29
8
Fumbles / Game
20
4
Turnover EPA / Game
4
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
10
4th Down Efficiency
28
8
RZ Efficiency
30
6
Buccaneers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
21
Yards / Game
3
5
Passing Yards / Game
9
6
Rushing Yards / Game
26
22
EPA
EPA / Play
4
16
EPA / Pass
6
20
EPA / Rush
11
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
2
Interceptions / Game
9
29
Fumbles / Game
19
11
Turnover EPA / Game
29
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
11
4th Down Efficiency
17
11
RZ Efficiency
1
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Buccaneers
9-1
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U