CHIBears
2-6
10
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
81°F
4 mph
36
TBBuccaneers
3-5
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
81°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
3
7
0
0
10
Buccaneers
1
10
10
7
28
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
283
360
Total Plays
54
68
Yards / Play
5.2
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.43
+0.06
Passing Yards
161
280
Comp/Att
16/30(53%)
23/33(70%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
8.5
EPA / Pass
-0.66
+0.34
Rushing Yards
122
80
Rush Attempts
20
31
Yards / Rush
6.1
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
22
Passing 1st downs
8
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
18%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-20.70
-3.23
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-21
-32
Sack EPA
-8.19
-6.33
Penalties
9
9
Penalty Yards
74
85
Penalty EPA
-6.81
+0.71
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model51.4%
Spread Pick
Buccaneers+2.5
Expected Value
+2.6%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+20
Home nfelo
1,416
Away nfelo
1,446
Home Field
+23.0
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-44.5
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+26.6
Home QB Adjustment
+2.3
Away QB Adjustment
-24.4
Market Regression
-10.0
Final Difference
-10.0
Model Spread
+0.5
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-24.4
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+2.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
15
Yards / Game
14
22
Passing Yards / Game
17
20
Rushing Yards / Game
16
22
EPA
EPA / Play
26
12
EPA / Pass
22
10
EPA / Rush
22
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
16
Interceptions / Game
28
4
Fumbles / Game
25
12
Turnover EPA / Game
4
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
1
4th Down Efficiency
31
31
RZ Efficiency
22
24
Buccaneers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
23
Yards / Game
18
14
Passing Yards / Game
13
2
Rushing Yards / Game
25
26
EPA
EPA / Play
18
26
EPA / Pass
9
24
EPA / Rush
28
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
25
Interceptions / Game
27
29
Fumbles / Game
25
30
Turnover EPA / Game
12
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
22
4th Down Efficiency
22
28
RZ Efficiency
21
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Buccaneers
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U