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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ buccaneers week 10, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CHI logo
CHIBears
2-6
10
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
81°F
4 mph
36
TBBuccaneers
3-5
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
81°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
3
7
0
0
10
Buccaneers
1
10
10
7
28

Spread

TB logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
283
360
Total Plays
54
68
Yards / Play
5.2
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.43
+0.06
Passing Yards
161
280
Comp/Att
16/30(53%)
23/33(70%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
8.5
EPA / Pass
-0.66
+0.34
Rushing Yards
122
80
Rush Attempts
20
31
Yards / Rush
6.1
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
15
22
Passing 1st downs
8
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
18%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-20.70
-3.23
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-21
-32
Sack EPA
-8.19
-6.33
Penalties
9
9
Penalty Yards
74
85
Penalty EPA
-6.81
+0.71

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
-0.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model51.4%
Spread Pick
TB logo
Buccaneers+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.6%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+20
Home nfelo
1,416
Away nfelo
1,446
Home Field
+23.3
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-45.2
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+26.6
Home QB Adjustment
+2.3
Away QB Adjustment
-24.4
Market Regression
-10.0
Final Difference
-10.0
Model Spread
+0.5

Quarterbacks

J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-24.4
Value
Ptile
11/22
-1.0
44
11/26
-0.1
50
12/06
-4.8
17
12/13
1.8
64
12/20
-3.1
28
12/27
0.8
55
01/03
-5.0
15
09/11
-5.2
15
09/19
-6.4
10
10/31
3.0
73
J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+2.3
Value
Ptile
12/27
-0.2
49
01/03
0.4
52
09/11
6.6
88
09/18
-10.7
2
09/25
5.9
86
10/02
-8.3
4
10/10
-0.7
43
10/23
2.5
68
10/30
-1.9
35
11/03
2.9
71

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Bears logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
29
15
Yards / Game
14
22
Passing Yards / Game
17
20
Rushing Yards / Game
16
22

EPA

EPA / Play
26
12
EPA / Pass
22
10
EPA / Rush
22
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
16
Interceptions / Game
28
4
Fumbles / Game
25
12
Turnover EPA / Game
4
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
1
4th Down Efficiency
31
31
RZ Efficiency
22
24
Buccaneers Offense vs Bears Defense
Buccaneers logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
18
23
Yards / Game
18
14
Passing Yards / Game
13
2
Rushing Yards / Game
25
26

EPA

EPA / Play
18
26
EPA / Pass
9
24
EPA / Rush
28
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
25
Interceptions / Game
27
29
Fumbles / Game
25
30
Turnover EPA / Game
12
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
22
4th Down Efficiency
22
28
RZ Efficiency
21
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/27
5
W
W
O
01/03
-4
L
L
U
09/11
-9
L
L
U
09/19
-15
L
L
O
09/25
-14
L
L
O
10/02
3
W
W
U
10/09
-6
L
L
O
10/16
-1
L
L
U
10/20
-16
L
L
U
10/31
10
W
W
U
TB logo

Buccaneers

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/27
-5
L
L
O
01/03
-28
L
L
O
09/11
7
W
W
O
09/18
-33
L
L
U
09/25
-5
L
L
O
10/02
-20
L
L
U
10/10
3
W
W
U
10/23
17
W
W
O
10/30
-6
L
L
O
11/03
-15
L
L
O