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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ buccaneers week 16, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CHI logo
CHIBears
5-9
26
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
83°F
13 mph
21
TBBuccaneers
6-8
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
83°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
13
0
13
26
Buccaneers
7
0
7
7
21

Spread

CHI logo
+3

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
327
389
Total Plays
67
55
Yards / Play
4.9
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.11
Passing Yards
153
285
Comp/Att
20/27(74%)
15/29(52%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
9.8
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.24
Rushing Yards
174
104
Rush Attempts
39
25
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
7
14
Rushing 1st downs
12
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
40%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
8
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-13.79
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-3
-10
Sack EPA
-1.32
-1.79
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
--
47
Penalty EPA
--
-5.00

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+53
Home nfelo
1,385
Away nfelo
1,413
Home Field
+70.5
Base HFA
+59.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.7
Net QB Adjustment
+9.2
Home QB Adjustment
+17.3
Away QB Adjustment
+8.1
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.1
Value
Ptile
10/11
1.4
61
10/18
2.6
69
11/01
3.7
77
11/09
3.1
74
11/15
7.1
91
11/22
-1.0
44
11/26
-0.1
50
12/06
-4.8
17
12/13
1.8
64
12/20
-3.1
28
J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+17.3
Value
Ptile
10/11
-1.0
44
10/25
4.9
81
11/01
0.6
54
11/08
1.7
63
11/15
-4.4
17
11/22
7.1
91
11/29
-4.0
21
12/06
1.8
63
12/13
-2.3
34
12/17
3.8
78

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Bears logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
26
Yards / Game
19
11
Passing Yards / Game
11
25
Rushing Yards / Game
11
9

EPA

EPA / Play
14
25
EPA / Pass
17
27
EPA / Rush
10
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
28
Interceptions / Game
11
20
Fumbles / Game
21
5
Turnover EPA / Game
18
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
30
4th Down Efficiency
5
27
RZ Efficiency
27
30
Buccaneers Offense vs Bears Defense
Buccaneers logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
20
20
Yards / Game
4
14
Passing Yards / Game
24
10
Rushing Yards / Game
4
22

EPA

EPA / Play
20
28
EPA / Pass
13
22
EPA / Rush
13
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
20
Interceptions / Game
20
30
Fumbles / Game
21
26
Turnover EPA / Game
9
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
29
4th Down Efficiency
11
9
RZ Efficiency
23
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
1
W
W
U
10/18
-3
L
W
O
11/01
-3
L
L
U
11/09
3
W
W
U
11/15
24
W
W
O
11/22
-2
L
W
U
11/26
4
W
W
U
12/06
-6
L
L
O
12/13
-3
L
L
O
12/20
-21
L
L
O
TB logo

Buccaneers

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
7
W
W
O
10/25
-1
L
W
O
11/01
3
W
W
U
11/08
-14
L
L
O
11/15
4
W
W
U
11/22
28
W
W
O
11/29
-13
L
L
U
12/06
4
W
W
U
12/13
-7
L
L
U
12/17
-8
L
L
O