CHIBears
5-9
26
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
83°F
13 mph
21
TBBuccaneers
6-8
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
83°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
13
0
13
26
Buccaneers
7
0
7
7
21
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
327
389
Total Plays
67
55
Yards / Play
4.9
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.11
Passing Yards
153
285
Comp/Att
20/27(74%)
15/29(52%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
9.8
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.24
Rushing Yards
174
104
Rush Attempts
39
25
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
7
14
Rushing 1st downs
12
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
40%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
8
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-13.79
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-3
-10
Sack EPA
-1.32
-1.79
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
--
47
Penalty EPA
--
-5.00
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+55
Home nfelo
1,388
Away nfelo
1,412
Home Field
+69.7
Base HFA
+59.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.6
Net QB Adjustment
+9.2
Home QB Adjustment
+17.3
Away QB Adjustment
+8.1
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.1
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+17.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
26
Yards / Game
19
11
Passing Yards / Game
11
25
Rushing Yards / Game
11
9
EPA
EPA / Play
14
25
EPA / Pass
17
27
EPA / Rush
10
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
28
Interceptions / Game
11
20
Fumbles / Game
21
5
Turnover EPA / Game
18
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
30
4th Down Efficiency
5
27
RZ Efficiency
27
30
Buccaneers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
20
Yards / Game
4
14
Passing Yards / Game
24
10
Rushing Yards / Game
4
22
EPA
EPA / Play
20
28
EPA / Pass
13
22
EPA / Rush
13
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
20
Interceptions / Game
20
30
Fumbles / Game
21
26
Turnover EPA / Game
9
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
29
4th Down Efficiency
11
9
RZ Efficiency
23
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U