CHIBears
4-3
9
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
029
ARICardinals
4-4
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
9
0
0
9
Cardinals
7
14
3
3
27
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
241
350
Total Plays
70
57
Yards / Play
3.4
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.23
+0.05
Passing Yards
172
137
Comp/Att
22/41(54%)
13/20(65%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.27
-0.36
Rushing Yards
69
213
Rush Attempts
23
34
Yards / Rush
3.0
6.3
EPA / Rush
-0.21
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
18
Passing 1st downs
10
7
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
21%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-7.97
Sacks
6
3
Sack Yards
-45
-17
Sack EPA
-11.00
-4.79
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
33
15
Penalty EPA
-6.87
-1.99
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+30
Home nfelo
1,458
Away nfelo
1,515
Home Field
+50.6
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
+36.6
Home QB Adjustment
+29.6
Away QB Adjustment
-7.1
Market Regression
+16.1
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
C. Williams
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-7.1
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+29.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
16
Yards / Game
32
20
Passing Yards / Game
20
8
Rushing Yards / Game
24
20
EPA
EPA / Play
27
25
EPA / Pass
26
24
EPA / Rush
20
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
28
Interceptions / Game
6
25
Fumbles / Game
13
19
Turnover EPA / Game
24
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
28
4th Down Efficiency
12
17
RZ Efficiency
9
8
Cardinals Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
14
Yards / Game
11
27
Passing Yards / Game
28
29
Rushing Yards / Game
7
27
EPA
EPA / Play
8
17
EPA / Pass
11
10
EPA / Rush
5
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
1
Interceptions / Game
11
18
Fumbles / Game
22
3
Turnover EPA / Game
20
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
12
4th Down Efficiency
27
5
RZ Efficiency
17
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Cardinals
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
5-4-1
O/U