CHIBears
8-6
28
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
013
ARICardinals
5-9
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
1
14
1
0
16
Cardinals
3
3
0
1
7
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
35.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
297
248
Total Plays
60
72
Yards / Play
5.0
3.4
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.40
Passing Yards
145
219
Comp/Att
12/26(46%)
28/49(57%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
4.5
EPA / Pass
-0.13
-0.44
Rushing Yards
152
29
Rush Attempts
33
19
Yards / Rush
4.6
1.5
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.86
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
15
Passing 1st downs
6
14
Rushing 1st downs
8
--
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
23%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-13.61
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-1
-27
Sack EPA
-0.90
-8.24
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
--
25
Penalty EPA
--
-4.19
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model65.3%
Spread Pick
Cardinals+7.0
Expected Value
+12.0%
Cover Probability
55.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-56
Home nfelo
1,402
Away nfelo
1,514
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-18.4
Home QB Adjustment
-14.0
Away QB Adjustment
+4.4
Market Regression
-4.7
Final Difference
-109.7
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.4
R. Lindley
Proj. Value
-6.1
Team Elo Adj
-14.0
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
17
Yards / Game
28
11
Passing Yards / Game
26
15
Rushing Yards / Game
10
28
EPA
EPA / Play
24
2
EPA / Pass
26
2
EPA / Rush
18
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
1
Interceptions / Game
18
2
Fumbles / Game
13
12
Turnover EPA / Game
22
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
3
4th Down Efficiency
25
13
RZ Efficiency
22
3
Cardinals Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
2
Yards / Game
32
5
Passing Yards / Game
18
24
Rushing Yards / Game
32
7
EPA
EPA / Play
32
1
EPA / Pass
32
1
EPA / Rush
32
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
8
Interceptions / Game
32
1
Fumbles / Game
25
1
Turnover EPA / Game
6
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
5
4th Down Efficiency
22
26
RZ Efficiency
31
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Cardinals
1-9
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U