CHIBears
1-3
23
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
029
INDColts
1-3
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
3
10
0
10
23
Colts
3
13
3
10
29
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
522
396
Total Plays
62
65
Yards / Play
8.4
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.16
Passing Yards
--
298
Comp/Att
33/43(77%)
28/39(72%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.30
+0.17
Rushing Yards
125
98
Rush Attempts
19
21
Yards / Rush
6.6
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.18
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
20
Passing 1st downs
17
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
22%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
9
12
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.12
--
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-24
Sack EPA
--
-8.98
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
80
68
Penalty EPA
-10.21
-9.29
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model69.1%
Spread Pick
Colts-4.0
Expected Value
+4.0%
Cover Probability
52.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+177
Home nfelo
1,459
Away nfelo
1,428
Home Field
+87.5
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+58.3
Home QB Adjustment
+4.2
Away QB Adjustment
-54.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
139.5
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-54.1
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+4.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
21
Yards / Game
14
30
Passing Yards / Game
17
22
Rushing Yards / Game
16
25
EPA
EPA / Play
26
25
EPA / Pass
22
25
EPA / Rush
22
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
5
Interceptions / Game
28
29
Fumbles / Game
25
17
Turnover EPA / Game
4
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
23
4th Down Efficiency
31
8
RZ Efficiency
22
6
Colts Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
23
Yards / Game
9
14
Passing Yards / Game
7
2
Rushing Yards / Game
24
26
EPA
EPA / Play
8
26
EPA / Pass
11
24
EPA / Rush
18
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
25
Interceptions / Game
18
29
Fumbles / Game
7
30
Turnover EPA / Game
8
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
22
4th Down Efficiency
22
28
RZ Efficiency
3
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Colts
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U