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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ colts week 5, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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CHI logo
CHIBears
1-3
23
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
29
INDColts
1-3
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
3
10
0
10
23
Colts
3
13
3
10
29

Spread

IND logo
-4

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
522
396
Total Plays
62
65
Yards / Play
8.4
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.16
Passing Yards
--
298
Comp/Att
33/43(77%)
28/39(72%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.30
+0.17
Rushing Yards
125
98
Rush Attempts
19
21
Yards / Rush
6.6
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.18
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
25
20
Passing 1st downs
17
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
22%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
9
12
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.12
--
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-24
Sack EPA
--
-8.98
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
80
68
Penalty EPA
-10.21
-9.29

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model69.1%
Spread Pick
IND logo
Colts-4.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.0%
Cover Probability
52.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+178
Home nfelo
1,459
Away nfelo
1,428
Home Field
+88.7
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+58.3
Home QB Adjustment
+4.2
Away QB Adjustment
-54.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
139.9
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

B. Hoyer headshot

B. Hoyer

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-54.1
Value
Ptile
10/25
-3.8
22
11/01
1.0
57
11/16
-6.2
10
11/29
-1.1
43
12/06
3.2
75
12/13
-8.2
3
01/03
-3.0
28
01/09
-14.7
0
09/25
4.0
78
10/02
4.3
81
A. Luck headshot

A. Luck

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+4.2
Value
Ptile
09/21
-2.6
32
09/27
-1.9
36
10/18
6.1
88
10/25
-1.7
38
11/02
-4.4
18
11/08
5.3
84
09/11
10.3
97
09/18
-5.8
12
09/25
0.6
54
10/02
-3.8
21

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Colts Defense
Bears logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
29
21
Yards / Game
14
30
Passing Yards / Game
17
22
Rushing Yards / Game
16
25

EPA

EPA / Play
26
25
EPA / Pass
22
25
EPA / Rush
22
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
5
Interceptions / Game
28
29
Fumbles / Game
25
17
Turnover EPA / Game
4
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
23
4th Down Efficiency
31
8
RZ Efficiency
22
6
Colts Offense vs Bears Defense
Colts logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
7
23
Yards / Game
9
14
Passing Yards / Game
7
2
Rushing Yards / Game
24
26

EPA

EPA / Play
8
26
EPA / Pass
11
24
EPA / Rush
18
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
25
Interceptions / Game
18
29
Fumbles / Game
7
30
Turnover EPA / Game
8
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
22
4th Down Efficiency
22
28
RZ Efficiency
3
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/26
4
W
W
U
12/06
-6
L
L
O
12/13
-3
L
L
O
12/20
-21
L
L
O
12/27
5
W
W
O
01/03
-4
L
L
U
09/11
-9
L
L
U
09/19
-15
L
L
O
09/25
-14
L
L
O
10/02
3
W
W
U
IND logo

Colts

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/29
13
W
W
U
12/06
-35
L
L
O
12/13
-35
L
L
O
12/20
-6
L
L
U
12/27
6
W
W
U
01/03
6
W
W
O
09/11
-4
L
L
O
09/18
-14
L
L
O
09/25
4
W
W
U
10/02
-3
L
L
O