CHIBears
1-1
31
TBD
FedExField
87°F
5 mph
15
WASCommanders
0-2
TBD
FedExField
87°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
1
21
0
3
25
Commanders
0
3
6
6
15
Spread
-5
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
298
356
Total Plays
58
70
Yards / Play
5.1
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.27
Passing Yards
208
287
Comp/Att
25/31(81%)
30/45(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.29
-0.25
Rushing Yards
90
69
Rush Attempts
24
21
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
25
Passing 1st downs
15
20
Rushing 1st downs
2
2
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
62%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
67%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
5
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-5.77
-27.27
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-23
-45
Sack EPA
-4.37
-11.56
Penalties
9
9
Penalty Yards
59
61
Penalty EPA
-6.01
-9.97
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market67.5%
Model66.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-82
Home nfelo
1,392
Away nfelo
1,546
Home Field
+46.8
Base HFA
+57.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.2
Net QB Adjustment
+24.7
Home QB Adjustment
+17.0
Away QB Adjustment
-7.7
Market Regression
+2.1
Final Difference
-117.8
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-7.7
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+17.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
27
Yards / Game
29
27
Passing Yards / Game
18
23
Rushing Yards / Game
27
31
EPA
EPA / Play
28
29
EPA / Pass
24
27
EPA / Rush
29
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
6
Interceptions / Game
16
13
Fumbles / Game
4
14
Turnover EPA / Game
22
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
32
4th Down Efficiency
29
30
RZ Efficiency
24
25
Commanders Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
4
Yards / Game
31
8
Passing Yards / Game
27
11
Rushing Yards / Game
23
9
EPA
EPA / Play
30
6
EPA / Pass
32
11
EPA / Rush
24
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
12
Interceptions / Game
19
25
Fumbles / Game
10
14
Turnover EPA / Game
11
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
6
4th Down Efficiency
21
23
RZ Efficiency
27
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Commanders
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U