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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ commanders week 3, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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CHI logo
CHIBears
1-1
31
TBD
FedExField
87°F
5 mph
15
WASCommanders
0-2
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
87°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
1
21
0
3
25
Commanders
0
3
6
6
15

Spread

CHI logo
-5

Total

OVER
41

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
298
356
Total Plays
58
70
Yards / Play
5.1
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.27
Passing Yards
208
287
Comp/Att
25/31(81%)
30/45(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.29
-0.25
Rushing Yards
90
69
Rush Attempts
24
21
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
21
25
Passing 1st downs
15
20
Rushing 1st downs
2
2
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
62%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
67%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
1
5
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-5.77
-27.27
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-23
-45
Sack EPA
-4.37
-11.56
Penalties
9
9
Penalty Yards
59
61
Penalty EPA
-6.01
-9.97

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market67.5%
Model66.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-76
Home nfelo
1,394
Away nfelo
1,542
Home Field
+47.3
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+24.7
Home QB Adjustment
+17.0
Away QB Adjustment
-7.7
Market Regression
+3.4
Final Difference
-116.5
Model Spread
+4.5

Quarterbacks

M. Trubisky headshot

M. Trubisky

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
-7.7
Value
Ptile
11/04
-3.5
25
11/11
11.9
98
11/18
-1.8
34
12/09
-9.1
6
12/16
4.2
75
12/23
1.2
54
12/30
1.7
59
01/06
0.9
52
09/05
-8.2
8
09/15
-3.0
31
C. Keenum headshot

C. Keenum

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+17.0
Value
Ptile
11/04
1.3
56
11/18
-0.4
43
11/25
-1.1
38
12/02
-3.9
23
12/09
-1.9
34
12/15
-2.7
30
12/24
-2.3
32
12/30
1.8
60
09/08
7.9
93
09/15
2.3
68

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Commanders Defense
Bears logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
29
27
Yards / Game
29
27
Passing Yards / Game
18
23
Rushing Yards / Game
27
31

EPA

EPA / Play
28
29
EPA / Pass
24
27
EPA / Rush
29
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
6
Interceptions / Game
16
13
Fumbles / Game
4
14
Turnover EPA / Game
22
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
32
4th Down Efficiency
29
30
RZ Efficiency
24
24
Commanders Offense vs Bears Defense
Commanders logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
32
4
Yards / Game
31
8
Passing Yards / Game
27
11
Rushing Yards / Game
23
9

EPA

EPA / Play
30
6
EPA / Pass
32
11
EPA / Rush
24
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
12
Interceptions / Game
19
25
Fumbles / Game
10
14
Turnover EPA / Game
11
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
6
4th Down Efficiency
21
23
RZ Efficiency
27
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/18
5
W
W
O
11/22
7
W
W
U
12/02
-3
L
L
O
12/09
9
W
W
U
12/16
7
W
W
U
12/23
5
W
W
U
12/30
14
W
W
U
01/06
-1
L
L
U
09/05
-7
L
L
U
09/15
2
W
L
U
WAS logo

Commanders

2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/11
13
W
W
U
11/18
-2
L
W
O
11/22
-8
L
L
O
12/03
-15
L
L
U
12/09
-24
L
L
O
12/16
3
W
W
U
12/22
-9
L
W
O
12/30
-24
L
L
U
09/08
-5
L
W
O
09/15
-10
L
L
O