CHIBears
2-2
25
TBD
FedExField
59°F
12 mph
24
WASCommanders
3-2
TBD
FedExField
59°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
6
7
3
9
25
Commanders
0
7
10
7
24
Spread
+5.5
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
381
329
Total Plays
60
60
Yards / Play
6.3
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.05
Passing Yards
236
205
Comp/Att
17/30(57%)
19/26(73%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.11
+0.25
Rushing Yards
145
124
Rush Attempts
27
31
Yards / Rush
5.4
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.22
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
22
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
30%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
10
8
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-15.75
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-16
-6
Sack EPA
-3.49
-2.30
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
84
40
Penalty EPA
-9.09
-5.20
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model66.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+80
Home nfelo
1,550
Away nfelo
1,467
Home Field
+1.7
Base HFA
+40.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-31.4
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.2
Net QB Adjustment
-4.8
Home QB Adjustment
+5.5
Away QB Adjustment
+10.3
Market Regression
+4.4
Final Difference
120.4
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
C. Williams
Proj. Value
-0.1
Team Elo Adj
+10.3
J. Daniels
Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+5.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
28
Yards / Game
4
31
Passing Yards / Game
21
19
Rushing Yards / Game
2
27
EPA
EPA / Play
15
31
EPA / Pass
11
31
EPA / Rush
7
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
14
Interceptions / Game
6
26
Fumbles / Game
3
28
Turnover EPA / Game
32
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
24
4th Down Efficiency
30
14
RZ Efficiency
22
23
Commanders Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
26
Yards / Game
18
27
Passing Yards / Game
12
9
Rushing Yards / Game
6
25
EPA
EPA / Play
12
18
EPA / Pass
16
18
EPA / Rush
10
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
26
Interceptions / Game
14
1
Fumbles / Game
23
5
Turnover EPA / Game
9
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
2
4th Down Efficiency
15
11
RZ Efficiency
2
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Commanders
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U