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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ commanders week 7, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CHI logo
CHIBears
4-2
41
TBD
FedExField
61°F
13 mph
45
WASCommanders
1-4
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
61°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
10
1
7
17
35
Commanders
3
15
7
14
39

Spread

WAS logo
+1

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
359
499
Total Plays
52
73
Yards / Play
6.9
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.26
+0.18
Passing Yards
219
290
Comp/Att
17/28(61%)
18/29(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
10.0
EPA / Pass
+0.01
+0.43
Rushing Yards
140
209
Rush Attempts
22
43
Yards / Rush
6.4
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.36
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
21
28
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
13
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
25%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
8
13
Red Zone %
75%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.40
-5.54
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-13
-8
Sack EPA
-2.02
-1.95
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
30
47
Penalty EPA
-1.46
-7.02

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+1
Home nfelo
1,453
Away nfelo
1,503
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-23.7
Home QB Adjustment
+0.4
Away QB Adjustment
+24.1
Market Regression
-31.3
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+24.1
Value
Ptile
12/09
-5.2
17
12/16
-6.0
13
12/23
-0.8
43
12/30
1.1
57
09/08
4.2
79
09/15
3.4
73
09/22
-0.0
49
09/29
-3.2
30
10/06
7.6
91
10/10
5.5
85
R. Griffin headshot

R. Griffin

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+0.4
Value
Ptile
12/03
5.5
84
12/09
1.2
58
12/23
-0.2
48
12/30
0.6
54
01/06
-3.0
30
09/09
0.1
50
09/15
4.4
81
09/22
2.0
64
09/29
-0.1
49
10/13
-3.1
31

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Commanders Defense
Bears logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
4
30
Yards / Game
7
19
Passing Yards / Game
7
26
Rushing Yards / Game
15
17

EPA

EPA / Play
7
24
EPA / Pass
6
27
EPA / Rush
8
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
14
Interceptions / Game
12
14
Fumbles / Game
17
11
Turnover EPA / Game
11
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
4
4th Down Efficiency
8
29
RZ Efficiency
7
29
Commanders Offense vs Bears Defense
Commanders logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
23
30
Yards / Game
10
29
Passing Yards / Game
19
13
Rushing Yards / Game
5
32

EPA

EPA / Play
28
31
EPA / Pass
22
16
EPA / Rush
11
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
30
Interceptions / Game
20
7
Fumbles / Game
29
20
Turnover EPA / Game
7
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
25
4th Down Efficiency
29
30
RZ Efficiency
18
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

6-4
SU
2-7-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/09
-7
L
L
U
12/16
-8
L
L
U
12/23
15
W
W
O
12/30
2
W
L
O
09/08
3
W
P
O
09/15
1
W
L
O
09/22
17
W
W
O
09/29
-8
L
L
O
10/06
-8
L
L
U
10/10
6
W
L
O
WAS logo

Commanders

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/09
3
W
W
O
12/16
17
W
W
O
12/23
7
W
W
O
12/30
10
W
W
U
01/06
-10
L
L
U
09/09
-6
L
L
O
09/15
-18
L
L
O
09/22
-7
L
L
U
09/29
10
W
W
U
10/13
-15
L
L
U