CHIBears
4-2
41
TBD
FedExField
61°F
13 mph
45
WASCommanders
1-4
TBD
FedExField
61°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
10
1
7
17
35
Commanders
3
15
7
14
39
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
359
499
Total Plays
52
73
Yards / Play
6.9
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.26
+0.18
Passing Yards
219
290
Comp/Att
17/28(61%)
18/29(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
10.0
EPA / Pass
+0.01
+0.43
Rushing Yards
140
209
Rush Attempts
22
43
Yards / Rush
6.4
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.36
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
28
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
13
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
25%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
8
13
Red Zone %
75%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.40
-5.54
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-13
-8
Sack EPA
-2.02
-1.95
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
30
47
Penalty EPA
-1.46
-7.02
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+1
Home nfelo
1,457
Away nfelo
1,506
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-23.7
Home QB Adjustment
+0.4
Away QB Adjustment
+24.1
Market Regression
-31.3
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+24.1
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+0.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
30
Yards / Game
7
19
Passing Yards / Game
7
26
Rushing Yards / Game
15
17
EPA
EPA / Play
7
24
EPA / Pass
6
27
EPA / Rush
8
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
14
Interceptions / Game
12
14
Fumbles / Game
17
11
Turnover EPA / Game
11
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
4
4th Down Efficiency
8
29
RZ Efficiency
7
29
Commanders Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
30
Yards / Game
10
29
Passing Yards / Game
19
13
Rushing Yards / Game
5
32
EPA
EPA / Play
28
31
EPA / Pass
22
16
EPA / Rush
11
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
30
Interceptions / Game
20
7
Fumbles / Game
29
20
Turnover EPA / Game
7
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
25
4th Down Efficiency
29
30
RZ Efficiency
18
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
6-4
SU
2-7-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Commanders
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U