CHIBears
4-2
15
TBD
FedExField
58°F
2 mph
18
WASCommanders
5-2
TBD
FedExField
58°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
0
7
8
15
Commanders
6
3
3
6
18
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
309
481
Total Plays
61
72
Yards / Play
5.1
6.7
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.01
Passing Yards
107
313
Comp/Att
10/25(40%)
21/38(55%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
8.2
EPA / Pass
-0.33
+0.17
Rushing Yards
202
168
Rush Attempts
33
32
Yards / Rush
6.1
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
23
Passing 1st downs
6
15
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
17%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.20
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-26
-13
Sack EPA
-5.17
-3.96
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
60
30
Penalty EPA
-9.29
-6.61
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+13
Home nfelo
1,501
Away nfelo
1,520
Home Field
+1.9
Base HFA
+44.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-34.3
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.9
Net QB Adjustment
+29.4
Home QB Adjustment
+29.3
Away QB Adjustment
-0.1
Market Regression
+37.5
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
C. Williams
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-0.1
J. Daniels
Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+29.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
22
Yards / Game
32
17
Passing Yards / Game
20
20
Rushing Yards / Game
24
31
EPA
EPA / Play
27
29
EPA / Pass
26
20
EPA / Rush
20
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
13
Interceptions / Game
6
24
Fumbles / Game
13
6
Turnover EPA / Game
24
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
16
4th Down Efficiency
12
29
RZ Efficiency
9
27
Commanders Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
14
Yards / Game
5
27
Passing Yards / Game
18
29
Rushing Yards / Game
4
27
EPA
EPA / Play
4
17
EPA / Pass
6
10
EPA / Rush
2
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
1
Interceptions / Game
8
18
Fumbles / Game
9
3
Turnover EPA / Game
26
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
12
4th Down Efficiency
1
5
RZ Efficiency
6
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
6-4
SU
6-2-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Commanders
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U