CHIBears
3-1
28
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
89°F
8 mph
31
MIADolphins
3-2
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
89°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Bears
0
0
21
7
0
28
Dolphins
7
0
6
15
3
31
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
467
543
Total Plays
64
76
Yards / Play
7.3
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.08
Passing Yards
303
--
Comp/Att
22/31(71%)
28/45(62%)
Yards / Pass
9.8
--
EPA / Pass
+0.31
+0.22
Rushing Yards
164
161
Rush Attempts
31
31
Yards / Rush
5.3
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
23
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
67%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
8
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-13.69
-14.09
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-13
--
Sack EPA
-2.61
--
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
58
67
Penalty EPA
-5.22
-7.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-152
Home nfelo
1,427
Away nfelo
1,513
Home Field
+22.8
Base HFA
+56.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-44.3
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
-89.0
Home QB Adjustment
-69.6
Away QB Adjustment
+19.4
Market Regression
-72.7
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+19.4
B. Osweiler
Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-69.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
27
Yards / Game
21
29
Passing Yards / Game
13
13
Rushing Yards / Game
14
31
EPA
EPA / Play
17
23
EPA / Pass
12
25
EPA / Rush
17
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
4
Interceptions / Game
20
2
Fumbles / Game
20
28
Turnover EPA / Game
13
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
28
4th Down Efficiency
10
3
RZ Efficiency
12
20
Dolphins Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
1
Yards / Game
31
3
Passing Yards / Game
29
12
Rushing Yards / Game
19
1
EPA
EPA / Play
28
1
EPA / Pass
29
3
EPA / Rush
27
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
24
Interceptions / Game
17
1
Fumbles / Game
29
17
Turnover EPA / Game
11
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
4
4th Down Efficiency
8
17
RZ Efficiency
27
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Dolphins
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U