CHIBears
3-4
14
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
52°F
13 mph
22
PHIEagles
4-4
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
52°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
0
7
7
14
Eagles
3
9
7
3
22
Spread
-5
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
164
373
Total Plays
42
78
Yards / Play
3.9
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.19
+0.00
Passing Yards
102
227
Comp/Att
10/21(48%)
26/39(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.31
+0.17
Rushing Yards
62
146
Rush Attempts
18
35
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
26
Passing 1st downs
3
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
20%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
18
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-2.22
--
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-23
-12
Sack EPA
-4.46
-5.19
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
70
75
Penalty EPA
-10.51
-7.80
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model65.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+68
Home nfelo
1,540
Away nfelo
1,539
Home Field
+60.7
Base HFA
+51.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+9.2
Net QB Adjustment
+6.3
Home QB Adjustment
-1.0
Away QB Adjustment
-7.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
112.3
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-7.3
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-1.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
15
Yards / Game
29
10
Passing Yards / Game
18
28
Rushing Yards / Game
27
3
EPA
EPA / Play
28
14
EPA / Pass
24
20
EPA / Rush
29
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
16
Interceptions / Game
16
24
Fumbles / Game
4
9
Turnover EPA / Game
22
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
5
4th Down Efficiency
29
27
RZ Efficiency
24
14
Eagles Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
4
Yards / Game
13
8
Passing Yards / Game
8
11
Rushing Yards / Game
11
9
EPA
EPA / Play
12
6
EPA / Pass
17
11
EPA / Rush
16
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
12
Interceptions / Game
5
25
Fumbles / Game
28
14
Turnover EPA / Game
19
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
6
4th Down Efficiency
30
23
RZ Efficiency
8
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Eagles
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U