CHIBears
2-0
30
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
026
ATLFalcons
0-2
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
3
7
0
20
30
Falcons
6
10
10
0
26
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
437
371
Total Plays
79
65
Yards / Play
5.5
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.16
Passing Yards
307
227
Comp/Att
29/52(56%)
19/38(50%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.01
-0.19
Rushing Yards
130
144
Rush Attempts
25
25
Yards / Rush
5.2
5.8
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
22
Passing 1st downs
14
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
27%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.28
-4.32
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-9
-11
Sack EPA
-3.12
-3.28
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
80
75
Penalty EPA
-7.85
-10.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+50
Home nfelo
1,521
Away nfelo
1,497
Home Field
+9.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+16.5
Home QB Adjustment
+12.8
Away QB Adjustment
-3.8
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-3.8
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+12.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
19
Yards / Game
28
29
Passing Yards / Game
14
30
Rushing Yards / Game
26
7
EPA
EPA / Play
22
19
EPA / Pass
24
26
EPA / Rush
20
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
11
Interceptions / Game
26
16
Fumbles / Game
9
13
Turnover EPA / Game
20
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
16
4th Down Efficiency
14
7
RZ Efficiency
21
27
Falcons Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
13
Yards / Game
15
11
Passing Yards / Game
1
22
Rushing Yards / Game
28
14
EPA
EPA / Play
14
10
EPA / Pass
11
20
EPA / Rush
27
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
17
Interceptions / Game
11
28
Fumbles / Game
12
21
Turnover EPA / Game
26
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
11
4th Down Efficiency
15
18
RZ Efficiency
26
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
7-3
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Falcons
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U