CHIBears
3-7
24
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
027
ATLFalcons
4-6
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
7
10
0
7
24
Falcons
7
10
7
3
27
Spread
-2
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
288
280
Total Plays
66
53
Yards / Play
4.4
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.06
Passing Yards
128
--
Comp/Att
14/21(67%)
13/20(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
--
EPA / Pass
+0.07
+0.08
Rushing Yards
160
149
Rush Attempts
41
33
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
7
7
Rushing 1st downs
12
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
56%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
9
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
9
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+1.03
-5.16
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-25
--
Sack EPA
-5.43
--
Penalties
7
2
Penalty Yards
56
13
Penalty EPA
-6.53
-3.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+76
Home nfelo
1,438
Away nfelo
1,388
Home Field
+60.9
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.9
Time Adj
+7.1
Net QB Adjustment
-34.9
Home QB Adjustment
-5.6
Away QB Adjustment
+29.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
+29.3
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-5.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
21
Yards / Game
28
26
Passing Yards / Game
32
1
Rushing Yards / Game
1
23
EPA
EPA / Play
21
28
EPA / Pass
32
31
EPA / Rush
2
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
22
Interceptions / Game
22
24
Fumbles / Game
20
20
Turnover EPA / Game
25
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
31
4th Down Efficiency
31
5
RZ Efficiency
13
13
Falcons Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
32
Yards / Game
24
29
Passing Yards / Game
31
6
Rushing Yards / Game
2
31
EPA
EPA / Play
14
32
EPA / Pass
19
32
EPA / Rush
8
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
4
Interceptions / Game
5
13
Fumbles / Game
20
14
Turnover EPA / Game
24
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
32
4th Down Efficiency
16
4
RZ Efficiency
14
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U