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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ falcons week 11, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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CHI logo
CHIBears
3-7
24
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0
27
ATLFalcons
4-6
ATL logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
7
10
0
7
24
Falcons
7
10
7
3
27

Spread

ATL logo
-2

Total

OVER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
288
280
Total Plays
66
53
Yards / Play
4.4
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.06
Passing Yards
128
--
Comp/Att
14/21(67%)
13/20(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
--
EPA / Pass
+0.07
+0.08
Rushing Yards
160
149
Rush Attempts
41
33
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
7
7
Rushing 1st downs
12
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
56%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
9
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
9
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+1.03
-5.16
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-25
--
Sack EPA
-5.43
--
Penalties
7
2
Penalty Yards
56
13
Penalty EPA
-6.53
-3.05

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+77
Home nfelo
1,438
Away nfelo
1,388
Home Field
+61.6
Base HFA
+40.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
+7.2
Net QB Adjustment
-34.9
Home QB Adjustment
-5.6
Away QB Adjustment
+29.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0

Quarterbacks

J. Fields headshot

J. Fields

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+29.3
Value
Ptile
09/11
-4.6
21
09/18
-6.6
11
09/25
-11.5
1
10/02
-6.6
10
10/09
1.9
68
10/13
-3.5
25
10/24
1.5
63
10/30
5.6
87
11/06
12.8
99
11/13
8.1
93
M. Mariota headshot

M. Mariota

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-5.6
Value
Ptile
09/11
6.4
90
09/18
-3.4
26
09/25
-2.2
35
10/02
-8.0
6
10/09
-2.5
32
10/16
6.6
91
10/23
-2.5
32
10/30
2.8
74
11/06
-4.9
18
11/10
-2.7
30

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Falcons Defense
Bears logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
23
21
Yards / Game
28
26
Passing Yards / Game
32
1
Rushing Yards / Game
1
23

EPA

EPA / Play
21
28
EPA / Pass
32
31
EPA / Rush
2
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
22
Interceptions / Game
22
24
Fumbles / Game
20
20
Turnover EPA / Game
25
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
31
4th Down Efficiency
31
5
RZ Efficiency
13
13
Falcons Offense vs Bears Defense
Falcons logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
15
32
Yards / Game
24
29
Passing Yards / Game
31
6
Rushing Yards / Game
2
31

EPA

EPA / Play
14
32
EPA / Pass
19
32
EPA / Rush
8
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
4
Interceptions / Game
5
13
Fumbles / Game
20
14
Turnover EPA / Game
24
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
32
4th Down Efficiency
16
4
RZ Efficiency
14
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/11
9
W
W
U
09/18
-17
L
L
U
09/25
3
W
P
O
10/02
-8
L
L
U
10/09
-7
L
W
O
10/13
-5
L
L
U
10/24
19
W
W
O
10/30
-20
L
L
O
11/06
-3
L
W
O
11/13
-1
L
L
O
ATL logo

Falcons

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/11
-1
L
W
O
09/18
-4
L
W
O
09/25
4
W
W
O
10/02
3
W
W
U
10/09
-6
L
W
U
10/16
14
W
W
U
10/23
-18
L
L
O
10/30
3
W
L
O
11/06
-3
L
L
U
11/10
-10
L
L
U