CHIBears
2-1
12
TBD
MetLife Stadium
70°F
020
NYGGiants
2-1
TBD
MetLife Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
6
3
3
0
12
Giants
7
7
3
3
20
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
39
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
304
333
Total Plays
60
61
Yards / Play
5.1
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.13
Passing Yards
155
71
Comp/Att
11/22(50%)
9/16(56%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
4.4
EPA / Pass
-0.27
-0.17
Rushing Yards
149
262
Rush Attempts
32
44
Yards / Rush
4.7
6.0
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
21
Passing 1st downs
6
5
Rushing 1st downs
7
14
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
33%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
3
1
Turnover EPA
-0.39
+2.46
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-19
-11
Sack EPA
-9.38
-1.82
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
65
55
Penalty EPA
-5.36
-6.31
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+57
Home nfelo
1,360
Away nfelo
1,386
Home Field
+58.7
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
+24.1
Home QB Adjustment
+2.4
Away QB Adjustment
-21.6
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-21.6
D. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+2.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
22
Yards / Game
28
25
Passing Yards / Game
32
2
Rushing Yards / Game
1
28
EPA
EPA / Play
21
31
EPA / Pass
32
21
EPA / Rush
2
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
5
Interceptions / Game
22
32
Fumbles / Game
20
3
Turnover EPA / Game
25
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
5
4th Down Efficiency
31
29
RZ Efficiency
13
10
Giants Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
32
Yards / Game
19
29
Passing Yards / Game
25
6
Rushing Yards / Game
6
31
EPA
EPA / Play
8
32
EPA / Pass
17
32
EPA / Rush
3
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
4
Interceptions / Game
1
13
Fumbles / Game
10
14
Turnover EPA / Game
32
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
32
4th Down Efficiency
16
4
RZ Efficiency
5
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
5-5
SU
3-5-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Giants
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U