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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ giants week 4, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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CHI logo
CHIBears
2-1
12
TBD
MetLife Stadium
70°F
0
20
NYGGiants
2-1
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
6
3
3
0
12
Giants
7
7
3
3
20

Spread

NYG logo
-3

Total

UNDER
39

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
304
333
Total Plays
60
61
Yards / Play
5.1
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.13
Passing Yards
155
71
Comp/Att
11/22(50%)
9/16(56%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
4.4
EPA / Pass
-0.27
-0.17
Rushing Yards
149
262
Rush Attempts
32
44
Yards / Rush
4.7
6.0
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
16
21
Passing 1st downs
6
5
Rushing 1st downs
7
14
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
33%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
3
1
Turnover EPA
-0.39
+2.46
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-19
-11
Sack EPA
-9.38
-1.82
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
65
55
Penalty EPA
-5.36
-6.31

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+57
Home nfelo
1,359
Away nfelo
1,384
Home Field
+58.7
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
+24.1
Home QB Adjustment
+2.4
Away QB Adjustment
-21.6
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Fields headshot

J. Fields

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-21.6
Value
Ptile
10/17
-4.1
24
10/24
-9.3
5
10/31
2.9
74
11/08
0.6
57
11/21
-5.6
16
12/12
0.6
57
12/20
2.0
68
09/11
-4.6
21
09/18
-6.6
11
09/25
-11.5
1
D. Jones headshot

D. Jones

Proj. Value
-0.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.4
Value
Ptile
10/10
-6.1
14
10/17
-10.5
3
10/24
0.2
54
11/01
-3.1
31
11/07
-4.2
24
11/22
-6.5
12
11/28
-0.8
47
09/11
-2.2
34
09/18
-2.5
32
09/26
-3.2
27

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Giants Defense
Bears logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
23
22
Yards / Game
28
25
Passing Yards / Game
32
2
Rushing Yards / Game
1
28

EPA

EPA / Play
21
31
EPA / Pass
32
21
EPA / Rush
2
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
5
Interceptions / Game
22
32
Fumbles / Game
20
3
Turnover EPA / Game
25
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
5
4th Down Efficiency
31
29
RZ Efficiency
13
10
Giants Offense vs Bears Defense
Giants logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
18
32
Yards / Game
19
29
Passing Yards / Game
25
6
Rushing Yards / Game
6
31

EPA

EPA / Play
8
32
EPA / Pass
17
32
EPA / Rush
3
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
4
Interceptions / Game
1
13
Fumbles / Game
10
14
Turnover EPA / Game
32
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
32
4th Down Efficiency
16
4
RZ Efficiency
5
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

5-5
SU
3-5-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/25
2
W
P
U
12/05
-11
L
L
O
12/12
-15
L
L
O
12/20
-8
L
L
U
12/26
1
W
W
O
01/02
26
W
W
U
01/09
-14
L
L
O
09/11
9
W
W
U
09/18
-17
L
L
U
09/25
3
W
P
O
NYG logo

Giants

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/28
6
W
W
U
12/05
-11
L
L
U
12/12
-16
L
L
O
12/19
-15
L
L
U
12/26
-24
L
L
O
01/02
-26
L
L
U
01/09
-15
L
L
U
09/11
1
W
W
U
09/18
3
W
W
U
09/26
-7
L
L
O