CHIBears
2-7
16
TBD
MetLife Stadium
41°F
10 mph
22
NYGGiants
6-3
TBD
MetLife Stadium
41°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
9
7
0
0
16
Giants
6
3
13
0
22
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
315
329
Total Plays
59
65
Yards / Play
5.3
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.09
Passing Yards
222
--
Comp/Att
17/30(57%)
21/36(58%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
--
EPA / Pass
+0.12
+0.21
Rushing Yards
93
102
Rush Attempts
25
29
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.03
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
33%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.15
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-30
--
Sack EPA
-5.43
--
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
40
35
Penalty EPA
-2.65
-3.13
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+208
Home nfelo
1,520
Away nfelo
1,434
Home Field
+87.3
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
+34.6
Home QB Adjustment
+0.8
Away QB Adjustment
-33.8
Market Regression
-14.3
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-33.8
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
4
Yards / Game
14
13
Passing Yards / Game
17
15
Rushing Yards / Game
16
2
EPA
EPA / Play
26
7
EPA / Pass
22
6
EPA / Rush
22
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
30
Interceptions / Game
28
8
Fumbles / Game
25
19
Turnover EPA / Game
4
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
3
4th Down Efficiency
31
15
RZ Efficiency
22
1
Giants Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
23
Yards / Game
23
14
Passing Yards / Game
24
2
Rushing Yards / Game
29
26
EPA
EPA / Play
28
26
EPA / Pass
24
24
EPA / Rush
29
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
25
Interceptions / Game
21
29
Fumbles / Game
23
30
Turnover EPA / Game
14
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
22
4th Down Efficiency
14
28
RZ Efficiency
19
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Giants
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U