CHIBears
3-1
41
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
88°F
3 mph
3
JAXJaguars
1-3
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
88°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
3
0
4
22
29
Jaguars
0
3
0
0
3
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
501
189
Total Plays
73
53
Yards / Play
6.9
3.6
EPA / Play
+0.25
-0.44
Passing Yards
287
129
Comp/Att
23/39(59%)
17/33(52%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
3.9
EPA / Pass
+0.35
-0.70
Rushing Yards
214
60
Rush Attempts
33
17
Yards / Rush
6.5
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.34
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
10
Passing 1st downs
16
5
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
59%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
10
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
13
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.14
-19.43
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-5
-13
Sack EPA
-1.24
-6.88
Penalties
12
6
Penalty Yards
80
49
Penalty EPA
-9.50
-8.34
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model69.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-114
Home nfelo
1,394
Away nfelo
1,556
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-3.3
Home QB Adjustment
-6.7
Away QB Adjustment
-3.3
Market Regression
-32.9
Final Difference
-141.9
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-3.3
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-6.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
29
Yards / Game
28
30
Passing Yards / Game
26
11
Rushing Yards / Game
10
30
EPA
EPA / Play
24
27
EPA / Pass
26
26
EPA / Rush
18
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
2
Interceptions / Game
18
20
Fumbles / Game
13
16
Turnover EPA / Game
22
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
28
4th Down Efficiency
25
13
RZ Efficiency
22
15
Jaguars Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
2
Yards / Game
29
5
Passing Yards / Game
12
24
Rushing Yards / Game
30
7
EPA
EPA / Play
29
1
EPA / Pass
29
1
EPA / Rush
25
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
8
Interceptions / Game
22
1
Fumbles / Game
16
1
Turnover EPA / Game
10
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
5
4th Down Efficiency
30
26
RZ Efficiency
27
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jaguars
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U