CHIBears
1-1
27
TBD
MetLife Stadium
60°F
10 mph
19
NYJJets
1-1
TBD
MetLife Stadium
60°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
8
3
7
3
21
Jets
3
10
3
3
19
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
257
414
Total Plays
63
72
Yards / Play
4.1
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.09
Passing Yards
197
300
Comp/Att
23/38(61%)
26/43(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.03
-0.17
Rushing Yards
60
114
Rush Attempts
21
26
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
21
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
47%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
67%
17%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
+1.16
-14.99
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-28
-16
Sack EPA
-9.02
-3.08
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
95
78
Penalty EPA
-11.20
-13.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model51.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-15
Home nfelo
1,470
Away nfelo
1,551
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-7.4
Home QB Adjustment
+1.6
Away QB Adjustment
+9.0
Market Regression
-1.0
Final Difference
8.1
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.0
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+1.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
24
Yards / Game
20
7
Passing Yards / Game
18
30
Rushing Yards / Game
27
5
EPA
EPA / Play
22
26
EPA / Pass
26
24
EPA / Rush
6
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
8
Interceptions / Game
30
30
Fumbles / Game
22
21
Turnover EPA / Game
8
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
30
4th Down Efficiency
18
1
RZ Efficiency
2
27
Jets Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
31
Yards / Game
22
30
Passing Yards / Game
23
32
Rushing Yards / Game
3
16
EPA
EPA / Play
24
29
EPA / Pass
29
31
EPA / Rush
10
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
13
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
10
21
Turnover EPA / Game
15
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
22
4th Down Efficiency
7
30
RZ Efficiency
32
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Jets
5-5
SU
4-4-2
ATS
5-5
O/U