CHIBears
3-0
32
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
040
DETLions
2-1
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
3
10
3
16
32
Lions
3
27
1
3
34
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
421
387
Total Plays
68
66
Yards / Play
6.2
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.02
Passing Yards
290
228
Comp/Att
27/49(55%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.16
-0.11
Rushing Yards
131
159
Rush Attempts
16
30
Yards / Rush
8.2
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.27
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
23
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
8%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
1
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
40%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
3
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-17.95
-12.74
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-31
-14
Sack EPA
-8.84
-2.70
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
30
--
Penalty EPA
-3.37
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+62
Home nfelo
1,532
Away nfelo
1,539
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+1.9
Home QB Adjustment
+13.4
Away QB Adjustment
+11.5
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.5
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+13.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
14
Yards / Game
7
16
Passing Yards / Game
7
24
Rushing Yards / Game
15
6
EPA
EPA / Play
7
12
EPA / Pass
6
19
EPA / Rush
8
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
31
Interceptions / Game
12
16
Fumbles / Game
17
27
Turnover EPA / Game
11
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
1
4th Down Efficiency
8
30
RZ Efficiency
7
1
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
30
Yards / Game
5
29
Passing Yards / Game
16
13
Rushing Yards / Game
17
32
EPA
EPA / Play
19
31
EPA / Pass
12
16
EPA / Rush
25
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
30
Interceptions / Game
20
7
Fumbles / Game
31
20
Turnover EPA / Game
2
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
25
4th Down Efficiency
25
30
RZ Efficiency
4
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
6-4
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Lions
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U