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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ lions week 4, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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CHI logo
CHIBears
3-0
32
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
40
DETLions
2-1
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
3
10
3
16
32
Lions
3
27
1
3
34

Spread

DET logo
-3

Total

OVER
48

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
421
387
Total Plays
68
66
Yards / Play
6.2
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.02
Passing Yards
290
228
Comp/Att
27/49(55%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.16
-0.11
Rushing Yards
131
159
Rush Attempts
16
30
Yards / Rush
8.2
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.27
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
18
23
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
8%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
1
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
40%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
4
3
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-17.95
-12.74
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-31
-14
Sack EPA
-8.84
-2.70
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
30
--
Penalty EPA
-3.37
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+62
Home nfelo
1,530
Away nfelo
1,537
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+1.9
Home QB Adjustment
+13.4
Away QB Adjustment
+11.5
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.5
Value
Ptile
11/11
-5.0
19
11/25
-0.7
45
12/02
6.8
89
12/09
-5.2
17
12/16
-6.0
13
12/23
-0.8
43
12/30
1.1
57
09/08
4.2
79
09/15
3.4
73
09/22
-0.0
49
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.4
Value
Ptile
11/18
-8.2
5
11/22
5.2
82
12/02
3.0
69
12/09
3.0
69
12/16
-7.9
6
12/22
6.0
87
12/30
3.9
75
09/08
4.4
80
09/15
5.4
84
09/22
3.7
75

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Bears logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
4
14
Yards / Game
7
16
Passing Yards / Game
7
24
Rushing Yards / Game
15
6

EPA

EPA / Play
7
12
EPA / Pass
6
19
EPA / Rush
8
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
31
Interceptions / Game
12
16
Fumbles / Game
17
27
Turnover EPA / Game
11
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
1
4th Down Efficiency
8
30
RZ Efficiency
7
1
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Lions logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
12
30
Yards / Game
5
29
Passing Yards / Game
16
13
Rushing Yards / Game
17
32

EPA

EPA / Play
19
31
EPA / Pass
12
16
EPA / Rush
25
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
30
Interceptions / Game
20
7
Fumbles / Game
31
20
Turnover EPA / Game
2
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
25
4th Down Efficiency
25
30
RZ Efficiency
4
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

6-4
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/19
-25
L
L
O
11/25
18
W
W
U
12/02
-6
L
L
O
12/09
-7
L
L
U
12/16
-8
L
L
U
12/23
15
W
W
O
12/30
2
W
L
O
09/08
3
W
P
O
09/15
1
W
L
O
09/22
17
W
W
O
DET logo

Lions

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/18
-4
L
L
U
11/22
-3
L
W
O
12/02
-2
L
L
O
12/09
-7
L
L
U
12/16
-28
L
L
O
12/22
-13
L
L
U
12/30
-2
L
W
O
09/08
10
W
W
O
09/15
-4
L
L
U
09/22
7
W
W
U