CHIBears
3-7
26
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
031
DETLions
7-2
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
7
3
10
6
26
Lions
0
14
0
15
29
Spread
+8
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
334
340
Total Plays
71
60
Yards / Play
4.7
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.02
Passing Yards
151
225
Comp/Att
16/23(70%)
23/36(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.03
-0.03
Rushing Yards
183
115
Rush Attempts
46
22
Yards / Rush
4.0
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
23
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
11
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
38%
73%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.16
-19.05
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-18
-13
Sack EPA
-4.26
-4.23
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
69
25
Penalty EPA
-6.93
-8.51
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market75.7%
Model78.7%
Spread Pick
Lions-8.0
Expected Value
+6.9%
Cover Probability
54.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+259
Home nfelo
1,596
Away nfelo
1,400
Home Field
+47.5
Base HFA
+44.1
Divisional Adj
-19.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.4
Time Adj
+7.9
Net QB Adjustment
+15.7
Home QB Adjustment
+11.0
Away QB Adjustment
-4.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
227.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-4.8
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+11.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
25
Yards / Game
21
23
Passing Yards / Game
23
18
Rushing Yards / Game
2
2
EPA
EPA / Play
23
23
EPA / Pass
25
28
EPA / Rush
3
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
27
Interceptions / Game
22
9
Fumbles / Game
16
29
Turnover EPA / Game
10
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
13
4th Down Efficiency
16
27
RZ Efficiency
14
30
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
19
Yards / Game
2
12
Passing Yards / Game
3
9
Rushing Yards / Game
6
1
EPA
EPA / Play
8
8
EPA / Pass
5
18
EPA / Rush
11
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
7
Interceptions / Game
8
1
Fumbles / Game
19
26
Turnover EPA / Game
14
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
29
4th Down Efficiency
13
4
RZ Efficiency
2
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
3-7
SU
3-5-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Lions
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U