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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ lions week 11, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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CHI logo
CHIBears
3-7
26
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
31
DETLions
7-2
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
7
3
10
6
26
Lions
0
14
0
15
29

Spread

CHI logo
+8

Total

OVER
48

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
334
340
Total Plays
71
60
Yards / Play
4.7
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.02
Passing Yards
151
225
Comp/Att
16/23(70%)
23/36(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.03
-0.03
Rushing Yards
183
115
Rush Attempts
46
22
Yards / Rush
4.0
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
25
23
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
11
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
38%
73%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.16
-19.05
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-18
-13
Sack EPA
-4.26
-4.23
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
69
25
Penalty EPA
-6.93
-8.51

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market75.7%
Model78.7%
Spread Pick
DET logo
Lions-8.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.9%
Cover Probability
54.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+260
Home nfelo
1,594
Away nfelo
1,397
Home Field
+48.0
Base HFA
+44.5
Divisional Adj
-20.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.6
Time Adj
+8.0
Net QB Adjustment
+15.8
Home QB Adjustment
+11.1
Away QB Adjustment
-4.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
227.3
Model Spread
-9.5

Quarterbacks

J. Fields headshot

J. Fields

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-4.7
Value
Ptile
12/04
6.4
90
12/18
2.2
70
12/24
-2.3
34
01/01
-8.3
5
09/10
-0.6
45
09/17
-8.8
5
09/24
-6.5
12
10/01
7.1
91
10/05
5.7
84
10/15
-8.7
6
J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+11.1
Value
Ptile
01/08
0.9
58
09/07
-0.1
48
09/17
6.1
87
09/24
1.5
60
09/28
-1.3
41
10/08
6.0
86
10/15
5.1
82
10/22
-3.5
26
10/30
1.1
56
11/12
6.4
88

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Bears logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
19
25
Yards / Game
21
23
Passing Yards / Game
23
18
Rushing Yards / Game
2
2

EPA

EPA / Play
23
23
EPA / Pass
25
28
EPA / Rush
3
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
27
Interceptions / Game
22
9
Fumbles / Game
16
29
Turnover EPA / Game
10
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
13
4th Down Efficiency
16
27
RZ Efficiency
14
30
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Lions logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
5
19
Yards / Game
2
12
Passing Yards / Game
3
9
Rushing Yards / Game
6
1

EPA

EPA / Play
8
8
EPA / Pass
5
18
EPA / Rush
11
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
7
Interceptions / Game
8
1
Fumbles / Game
19
26
Turnover EPA / Game
14
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
29
4th Down Efficiency
13
4
RZ Efficiency
2
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

3-7
SU
3-5-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/10
-18
L
L
O
09/17
-10
L
L
O
09/24
-31
L
L
O
10/01
-3
L
P
O
10/05
20
W
W
O
10/15
-6
L
L
U
10/22
18
W
W
O
10/29
-17
L
L
U
11/05
-7
L
W
U
11/09
3
W
P
U
DET logo

Lions

8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/08
4
W
W
U
09/07
1
W
W
U
09/17
-6
L
L
O
09/24
14
W
W
U
09/28
14
W
W
O
10/08
18
W
W
O
10/15
14
W
W
U
10/22
-32
L
L
O
10/30
12
W
W
U
11/12
3
W
W
O