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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ lions week 12, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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CHI logo
CHIBears
3-7
16
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
14
DETLions
0-9
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
13
0
3
16
Lions
7
0
7
0
14

Spread

DET logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
378
239
Total Plays
69
45
Yards / Play
5.5
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.20
Passing Yards
310
163
Comp/Att
24/39(62%)
21/25(84%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.31
+0.04
Rushing Yards
68
76
Rush Attempts
29
19
Yards / Rush
2.3
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.40
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
21
14
Passing 1st downs
18
8
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
38%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.00
-5.12
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-8
Sack EPA
-1.87
-5.12
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
50
67
Penalty EPA
-6.90
-5.96

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-21
Home nfelo
1,382
Away nfelo
1,411
Home Field
+42.4
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
-17.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-34.9
Home QB Adjustment
-14.5
Away QB Adjustment
+20.3
Market Regression
+18.6
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+20.3
Value
Ptile
10/25
-13.1
1
11/22
1.7
56
11/26
-3.0
24
12/08
2.6
64
12/13
-1.2
36
12/20
-0.3
43
12/27
5.1
78
01/03
-5.9
11
09/12
-2.4
35
09/19
-3.0
32
J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
-14.5
Value
Ptile
01/16
-1.5
33
09/12
4.3
81
09/20
5.2
84
09/26
-0.9
46
10/03
0.8
59
10/10
-7.6
10
10/17
-3.9
25
10/24
-2.7
33
10/31
-6.0
15
11/14
-7.5
10

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Bears logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
27
31
Yards / Game
24
29
Passing Yards / Game
21
24
Rushing Yards / Game
15
28

EPA

EPA / Play
27
30
EPA / Pass
30
29
EPA / Rush
18
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
19
Interceptions / Game
29
22
Fumbles / Game
20
11
Turnover EPA / Game
4
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
29
4th Down Efficiency
28
28
RZ Efficiency
30
30
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Lions logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
25
21
Yards / Game
22
5
Passing Yards / Game
25
6
Rushing Yards / Game
18
22

EPA

EPA / Play
23
16
EPA / Pass
21
20
EPA / Rush
25
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
2
Interceptions / Game
14
29
Fumbles / Game
20
11
Turnover EPA / Game
8
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
11
4th Down Efficiency
21
11
RZ Efficiency
31
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/12
-20
L
L
O
09/19
3
W
W
U
09/26
-20
L
L
U
10/03
10
W
W
U
10/10
11
W
W
U
10/17
-10
L
L
U
10/24
-35
L
L
U
10/31
-11
L
L
O
11/08
-2
L
W
O
11/21
-3
L
W
U
DET logo

Lions

0-9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/12
-8
L
W
O
09/20
-18
L
L
O
09/26
-2
L
W
U
10/03
-10
L
L
U
10/10
-2
L
W
U
10/17
-23
L
L
U
10/24
-9
L
W
U
10/31
-38
L
L
O
11/14
0
T
W
U
11/21
-3
L
W
U