CHIBears
3-7
16
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
014
DETLions
0-9
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
13
0
3
16
Lions
7
0
7
0
14
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
378
239
Total Plays
69
45
Yards / Play
5.5
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.20
Passing Yards
310
163
Comp/Att
24/39(62%)
21/25(84%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.31
+0.04
Rushing Yards
68
76
Rush Attempts
29
19
Yards / Rush
2.3
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.40
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
14
Passing 1st downs
18
8
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
38%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.00
-5.12
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-8
Sack EPA
-1.87
-5.12
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
50
67
Penalty EPA
-6.90
-5.96
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-21
Home nfelo
1,385
Away nfelo
1,414
Home Field
+42.4
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
-17.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-34.9
Home QB Adjustment
-14.5
Away QB Adjustment
+20.3
Market Regression
+18.4
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+20.3
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
-14.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
31
Yards / Game
24
29
Passing Yards / Game
21
24
Rushing Yards / Game
15
28
EPA
EPA / Play
27
30
EPA / Pass
30
29
EPA / Rush
18
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
19
Interceptions / Game
29
22
Fumbles / Game
20
11
Turnover EPA / Game
4
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
29
4th Down Efficiency
28
28
RZ Efficiency
30
30
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
21
Yards / Game
22
5
Passing Yards / Game
25
6
Rushing Yards / Game
18
22
EPA
EPA / Play
23
16
EPA / Pass
21
20
EPA / Rush
25
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
2
Interceptions / Game
14
29
Fumbles / Game
20
11
Turnover EPA / Game
8
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
11
4th Down Efficiency
21
11
RZ Efficiency
31
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Lions
0-9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U