CHIBears
5-6
17
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
034
DETLions
7-4
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
14
0
3
0
17
Lions
3
21
0
10
34
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
269
474
Total Plays
59
70
Yards / Play
4.6
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.14
Passing Yards
256
383
Comp/Att
31/48(65%)
34/45(76%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
8.5
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.18
Rushing Yards
13
91
Rush Attempts
8
23
Yards / Rush
1.6
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.42
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
28
Passing 1st downs
16
19
Rushing 1st downs
--
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
42%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.45
-6.73
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-24
-7
Sack EPA
-4.64
-7.53
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
41
38
Penalty EPA
-3.85
-3.54
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model67.6%
Spread Pick
Bears+7.0
Expected Value
+8.1%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+89
Home nfelo
1,527
Away nfelo
1,483
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-22.7
Home QB Adjustment
-18.8
Away QB Adjustment
+3.9
Market Regression
+6.5
Final Difference
127.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.9
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-18.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
3
Yards / Game
20
2
Passing Yards / Game
18
13
Rushing Yards / Game
27
1
EPA
EPA / Play
22
5
EPA / Pass
26
10
EPA / Rush
6
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
11
Interceptions / Game
30
6
Fumbles / Game
22
20
Turnover EPA / Game
8
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
10
4th Down Efficiency
18
17
RZ Efficiency
2
11
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
31
Yards / Game
17
30
Passing Yards / Game
7
32
Rushing Yards / Game
28
16
EPA
EPA / Play
21
29
EPA / Pass
14
31
EPA / Rush
24
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
13
Interceptions / Game
9
16
Fumbles / Game
8
21
Turnover EPA / Game
28
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
22
4th Down Efficiency
16
30
RZ Efficiency
15
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Lions
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
1-9
O/U