CHIBears
4-7
20
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
023
DETLions
10-1
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
0
7
13
20
Lions
3
13
7
0
23
Spread
+9.5
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
301
405
Total Plays
60
69
Yards / Play
5.0
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.07
Passing Yards
223
211
Comp/Att
20/40(50%)
21/34(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
6.2
EPA / Pass
-0.03
+0.03
Rushing Yards
78
194
Rush Attempts
15
33
Yards / Rush
5.2
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
25
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
47%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-3.36
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-33
-10
Sack EPA
-7.12
-2.19
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
78
79
Penalty EPA
-11.86
-9.40
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model79.3%
Spread Pick
Lions-9.5
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+268
Home nfelo
1,711
Away nfelo
1,498
Home Field
+43.7
Base HFA
+40.6
Divisional Adj
-18.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.2
Time Adj
+7.3
Net QB Adjustment
+10.1
Home QB Adjustment
+2.3
Away QB Adjustment
-7.8
Market Regression
-13.7
Final Difference
233.7
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
C. Williams
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-7.8
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+2.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
11
Yards / Game
32
26
Passing Yards / Game
20
16
Rushing Yards / Game
24
6
EPA
EPA / Play
27
7
EPA / Pass
26
6
EPA / Rush
20
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
24
Interceptions / Game
6
7
Fumbles / Game
13
18
Turnover EPA / Game
24
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
1
4th Down Efficiency
12
4
RZ Efficiency
9
12
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
14
Yards / Game
2
27
Passing Yards / Game
10
29
Rushing Yards / Game
3
27
EPA
EPA / Play
3
17
EPA / Pass
2
10
EPA / Rush
6
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
1
Interceptions / Game
24
18
Fumbles / Game
2
3
Turnover EPA / Game
15
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
12
4th Down Efficiency
4
5
RZ Efficiency
3
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
3-7
SU
4-4-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Lions
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U