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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ lions week 13, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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CHI logo
CHIBears
4-7
20
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
23
DETLions
10-1
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
0
7
13
20
Lions
3
13
7
0
23

Spread

CHI logo
+9.5

Total

UNDER
48

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
301
405
Total Plays
60
69
Yards / Play
5.0
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.07
Passing Yards
223
211
Comp/Att
20/40(50%)
21/34(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
6.2
EPA / Pass
-0.03
+0.03
Rushing Yards
78
194
Rush Attempts
15
33
Yards / Rush
5.2
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
17
25
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
47%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-3.36
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-33
-10
Sack EPA
-7.12
-2.19
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
78
79
Penalty EPA
-11.86
-9.40

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market78.5%
Model79.4%
Spread Pick
DET logo
Lions-9.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+269
Home nfelo
1,707
Away nfelo
1,493
Home Field
+44.4
Base HFA
+41.3
Divisional Adj
-18.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.4
Time Adj
+7.4
Net QB Adjustment
+10.1
Home QB Adjustment
+2.3
Away QB Adjustment
-7.8
Market Regression
-13.5
Final Difference
233.9
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

C. Williams headshot

C. Williams

Proj. Value
+0.7
Team Elo Adj
-7.8
Value
Ptile
09/15
-10.2
2
09/22
-1.0
42
09/29
-1.9
36
10/06
6.7
88
10/13
5.5
81
10/27
-6.6
10
11/03
-9.5
3
11/10
-12.5
0
11/17
3.1
70
11/24
6.5
87
J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+2.3
Value
Ptile
09/15
-2.2
33
09/22
-0.8
43
09/30
4.4
77
10/13
6.3
85
10/20
2.8
69
10/27
-2.9
28
11/03
0.5
52
11/10
-7.5
6
11/17
13.1
99
11/24
-1.6
37

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Bears logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
28
11
Yards / Game
32
26
Passing Yards / Game
20
16
Rushing Yards / Game
24
6

EPA

EPA / Play
27
7
EPA / Pass
26
6
EPA / Rush
20
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
24
Interceptions / Game
6
7
Fumbles / Game
13
18
Turnover EPA / Game
24
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
1
4th Down Efficiency
12
4
RZ Efficiency
9
12
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Lions logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
1
14
Yards / Game
2
27
Passing Yards / Game
10
29
Rushing Yards / Game
3
27

EPA

EPA / Play
3
17
EPA / Pass
2
10
EPA / Rush
6
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
1
Interceptions / Game
24
18
Fumbles / Game
2
3
Turnover EPA / Game
15
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
12
4th Down Efficiency
4
5
RZ Efficiency
3
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

3-7
SU
4-4-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
-6
L
P
U
09/22
-5
L
L
U
09/29
6
W
W
O
10/06
26
W
W
O
10/13
19
W
W
O
10/27
-3
L
L
U
11/03
-20
L
L
U
11/10
-16
L
L
U
11/17
-1
L
W
U
11/24
-3
L
P
O
DET logo

Lions

9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
-4
L
L
U
09/22
7
W
W
U
09/30
13
W
W
O
10/13
38
W
W
O
10/20
2
W
W
O
10/27
38
W
W
O
11/03
10
W
W
U
11/10
3
W
L
U
11/17
46
W
W
O
11/24
18
W
W
U