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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ lions week 14, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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CHI logo
CHIBears
3-9
17
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
20
DETLions
8-4
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
3
0
7
1
11
Lions
0
10
3
7
20

Spread

CHI logo
+7.5

Total

UNDER
42

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
296
323
Total Plays
50
66
Yards / Play
5.9
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.03
Passing Yards
204
209
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
21/35(60%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.12
-0.13
Rushing Yards
92
114
Rush Attempts
17
28
Yards / Rush
5.4
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
16
25
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
40%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-11.92
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-8
-14
Sack EPA
-2.29
-4.65
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
139
55
Penalty EPA
-13.76
-6.86

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+192
Home nfelo
1,497
Away nfelo
1,440
Home Field
+62.4
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+72.7
Home QB Adjustment
+14.1
Away QB Adjustment
-58.6
Market Regression
-39.6
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

M. Barkley headshot

M. Barkley

Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-58.6
Value
Ptile
11/27
-0.0
48
12/04
-3.6
22
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+14.1
Value
Ptile
09/25
6.1
87
10/02
-5.4
14
10/09
1.6
61
10/16
8.1
93
10/23
1.7
62
10/30
2.5
68
11/06
1.5
60
11/20
-0.7
43
11/24
1.6
61
12/04
6.8
89

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Bears logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
29
13
Yards / Game
14
18
Passing Yards / Game
17
21
Rushing Yards / Game
16
20

EPA

EPA / Play
26
30
EPA / Pass
22
31
EPA / Rush
22
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
13
Interceptions / Game
28
26
Fumbles / Game
25
29
Turnover EPA / Game
4
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
31
4th Down Efficiency
31
15
RZ Efficiency
22
30
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Lions logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
22
23
Yards / Game
24
14
Passing Yards / Game
3
2
Rushing Yards / Game
30
26

EPA

EPA / Play
9
26
EPA / Pass
8
24
EPA / Rush
24
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
25
Interceptions / Game
9
29
Fumbles / Game
1
30
Turnover EPA / Game
25
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
22
4th Down Efficiency
8
28
RZ Efficiency
17
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/25
-14
L
L
O
10/02
3
W
W
U
10/09
-6
L
L
O
10/16
-1
L
L
U
10/20
-16
L
L
U
10/31
10
W
W
U
11/13
-26
L
L
O
11/20
-6
L
W
U
11/27
-6
L
W
O
12/04
20
W
W
U
DET logo

Lions

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/25
-7
L
L
O
10/02
-3
L
L
U
10/09
1
W
W
O
10/16
3
W
W
O
10/23
3
W
W
U
10/30
-7
L
L
U
11/06
6
W
W
U
11/20
7
W
W
U
11/24
3
W
W
U
12/04
15
W
W
U