CHIBears
3-9
17
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
020
DETLions
8-4
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
3
0
7
1
11
Lions
0
10
3
7
20
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
296
323
Total Plays
50
66
Yards / Play
5.9
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.03
Passing Yards
204
209
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
21/35(60%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.12
-0.13
Rushing Yards
92
114
Rush Attempts
17
28
Yards / Rush
5.4
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
25
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
40%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-11.92
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-8
-14
Sack EPA
-2.29
-4.65
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
139
55
Penalty EPA
-13.76
-6.86
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+194
Home nfelo
1,500
Away nfelo
1,440
Home Field
+61.5
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
+72.7
Home QB Adjustment
+14.1
Away QB Adjustment
-58.6
Market Regression
-39.6
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
M. Barkley
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-58.6
Value
Ptile
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+14.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
13
Yards / Game
14
18
Passing Yards / Game
17
21
Rushing Yards / Game
16
20
EPA
EPA / Play
26
30
EPA / Pass
22
31
EPA / Rush
22
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
13
Interceptions / Game
28
26
Fumbles / Game
25
29
Turnover EPA / Game
4
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
31
4th Down Efficiency
31
15
RZ Efficiency
22
30
Lions Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
23
Yards / Game
24
14
Passing Yards / Game
3
2
Rushing Yards / Game
30
26
EPA
EPA / Play
9
26
EPA / Pass
8
24
EPA / Rush
24
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
25
Interceptions / Game
9
29
Fumbles / Game
1
30
Turnover EPA / Game
25
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
22
4th Down Efficiency
8
28
RZ Efficiency
17
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Lions
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U